Brendan Heberton

We all know it's only a matter of time. Even as daily storms have interrupted
life's plans at times in recent months, all of us situated along the Front Range
and high plains know to accept water falling from the sky with open arms when it
comes and not to take it for granted. 

In so many ways, June picked up where May left off. Great moisture continues up
and down the Rockies with those surplus precipitation anomalies expanding
further into the drought-stricken plains in recent weeks as well:

Most model guidance is in agreement that the next week to 10 days remains, by
and large, average to wetter than average across the greater region and notably
so for the mountains of California and much of the Great Basin. Below is a look
at the forecast precipitation anomalies from the European ensemble model through
next Friday morning, still showing greens (above average precipitation) across
much of Colorado through the period. 

The CFS shows a similar idea, anomalous moisture on the way for much of the West
over the next 7 to 10 days: 

The latter half of the period may dry a bit for Colorado as we look at days 5 -
15 below: 

Though that may be short-lived, as this same model shows above average returning
by late month after (perhaps) a bit of a lull. 

The European shows a similar idea. Fairly active wet weather pattern persisting
into next week, but gradually we see those precipitation chances become more
sparse in the 7 to 15 day range (not as dry as we often see either in June,
important to note!). Here's the outlook from all of the ensemble members for 24
hour precipitation totals for Denver over the next 15 days. The clustering of
greens/blues is focused in the beginning of the period vs latter: 

Similarly for Lamar, Colorado with some models quite wet early next week: 

The takeaway here? 

Expect daily storm chances to persist at least with a good chance of storms in
the forecast for the weekend in Denver (below). 

By the middle to latter half of next week we may start to see those daily storm
chances decrease in coverage a bit as the pattern eases, but guidance isn't
exactly indicative of a shift toward dry either. I'd expect even if coverage
decreases, we'll still be talking storms in the forecast as we head into next
weekend regionally. 

To date, the June outlook presented awhile ago remains on track:

June 2023 weather outlook: Wet signal continues early onJune is upon us and is
off to a wet start across parts of the plains and
mountain west where scattered to numerous thunderstorms impacted day-to-day
operations. As of Friday June 2nd, a number of flood alerts paint the map from
Montana to Wyoming and Nebraska, and from New Mexico through Texas into
…Matt MakensJun 02, 2023Weather5280
[https://www.weather5280.com/2023/06/02/june-2023-weather-outlook-wet-signal-continues-early]
Get out and enjoy the green, and let's watch things as we head into the latter
half of the month for any potential changes to the large-scale pattern.

Medium range forecast: When will things dry out?