Brian Bledsoe

It has been a little over a month since we last looked at our old friend
[https://www.weather5280.com/2023/06/21/weather5280-insider-el-nino-update], so
it's time to see what the (incoming?) El Niño is up to. 

The graphic below shows current sea surface temperature anomalies, where
yellows/reds indicate above average surface temperatures and blues below
average. 

A few things to note, before I show you what it looked like earlier this year: 

 1. The warmest water in the ENSO region is centered off the west coast of South
    America.
 2. The northern Pacific Ocean has plenty of warmth now too. 
 3. Some lingering colder than average water is still present off the Baja to
    near Hawaii. 

Now, were these things present a few months ago? Let’s see what it looked like
on May 8th: 

You can see the that northern Pacific Ocean wasn’t nearly as warm, and a very
pronounced area of colder than average water existed off the west coast of the
US. Also, the ENSO region wasn’t as warm as it is now. Bottom-line, the regions
of interest have warmed quite a bit, and will likely continue to warm in the
coming months. The animation below shows what has happened in the past month: 


A bit question that remains is how strong will this El Niño get? While that is
always uncertain, here is a look at our latest computer model forecast.



All of those lines represent the various models forecasting the strength and
duration of the El Niño. The simple message? El Niño will likely be at least of
moderate strength and likely last through the upcoming winter. 

Historically, El Niño invigorates the southern branch of the jet stream, and
keeps the southern tier of the country wetter and colder than average. La Niña,
which we dealt with prior, usually does the opposite. See the graphic below. 


Per our forecast, the monsoon was delayed and has grossly underperformed. Has El
Niño been responsible for hindering our monsoon? It is somewhat to blame, but
the cooler than average water off the southwest coast of the US and the warmer
than average water off the northeast coast of the US, have also been
responsible. 

2023 North American Monsoon forecast updateAs we head deeper into July we
thought it time to give an update on the progress
of the monsoon. If you’ve been frequenting the site, you know that we not only
expected the monsoon to be a late arrival, but also a diminished one. So far,
there has not been any real monsoon signal. The graphic below …Brian BledsoeJul
05, 2023Weather5280
[https://www.weather5280.com/2023/07/05/2023-north-american-monsoon-forecast-update]
Here's a look at % of average rainfall for the past month.

Notice how dry southwest Colorado and the rest of the Four Corners states have
been. The rain that we've seen here on the eastern slope has not been monsoon
related at all. The forecast for the next couple of weeks is not that favorable
for those dry areas, even with a bit of monsoonal moisture working its way north
this week. 

Far south/southwest Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico will likely remain drier
than average, with much better rain to the north.

The latest seasonal computer model information updates in a little under a week.
It will be interesting to see how those models are flavored, as we push into
late summer. We'll provide an update on those models, as they become available.

El Niño forecast discussion and update, July 2023