Brendan Heberton

We've inching toward the halfway mark here in December, and somehow nearing the
end of 2023. Time for a quick update on what we're watching for the next days
and final weeks of the year. 

The big weather story this week will be plentiful wet weather across the
Southern Plains for the latter half of the week into next weekend. This will be
a widespread precipitation event for Texas, with some of that anomalous moisture
expected to push into southeast Colorado, and portions of New Mexico, Oklahoma,
and Kansas. 

Here's a look at forecast precipitation anomalies through next Sunday, a wet
signal indeed for the Lone Star State: 

Actual numbers vary between runs and models, but somewhere in the 1 - 3" of
precipitation looks like a good bet for a lot of folks, with upwards of 3 and 4"
possible under the heavier rain. 

For Colorado a bit more of a question how much impact we see. We think parts of
southern Colorado stand a good chance at getting in on the action... but as you
can see most of the southern counties are on the edge of the heaviest
precipitation, and a shift in the system could mean a miss. For the Denver area,
some rain and snow showers later in the week as this system gets cranking to our
south are possible, but overall impacts do not look all that impressive at this
time. 

Snow vs rain will be challenging with this setup, but some snow looks possible
if not probable across southeast Colorado, eastern New Mexico, and the
panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma. Further south/southeast we'll be talking rain. 

You can see this morning's European ensemble model is quite bullish with snow
for this region Wednesday through Saturday: 

And zoomed to Colorado: 

If you live in the area or have travel plans later this week that take you there
this area, plan accordingly! 

As we move beyond this week and into the final stretch of the year you're likely
to start hearing a lot about a powerful jet extension across the Pacific that,
should it come to fruition, is being well-advertised by modeling right now, and
has been for some time. 

This setup is indicative of a rather warm pattern across the CONUS, and well...
a wet one as well. The wet weather will especially favor the West Coast, with an
active end to the year for California looking increasingly likely. 

Analog guidance suggests the days leading up to Christmas 2023 will be quite
warm (relative to average) across most of the country. A lot of Pacific air will
be working into the flow, with downsloping winds driving the show and warming
areas east of the Rockies considerable at times. 

At the same time, we see that wet signal starting to show up across the West
Coast, a pattern that could persist into the new year if the outlook holds. 

How much of that moisture gets east, and where the storm track sets up remains a
bit more of a question, but it is an El Niño and as we've seen from time to time
this year already the southerly storm track seems open for business which makes
me not hate this overall look for wet vs dry as we round out 2023.

Weather5280 Insider: Southern plains rain and snow, warm pattern for CONUS, and late month activity for west coast?