Colorado Snowpack
Colorado snowpack above average as we approach average peak date
As many communities continue to dig out after last week's monster snow , let's take a quick look at snowpack across the state and see what kind of impact the storm had on numbers across the South Platte Basin. The statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) now sits at 108% of the median for the date, and 90% of the median peak snowpack which is ab
Colorado Snowpack
Snowpack numbers are dismal across Colorado and the West, will January deliver the goods?
It's the worst start to to a new year for snowpack across Colorado since 2018, with the median snowpack running at just 68% to start 2024. Ouch! The troublesome snowpack numbers aren't unique to Colorado either. Across the west we see the majority of basins running below average to date, and in perhaps a majority of cases well below that longterm average. Basins running 70% of better of median are in few company. This year's issue isn't just that it's been dry, but it's also been warm. What
Snowpack
Slow start to the season for Western U.S. snowpack, will that change in December?
It hasn't been a great start to the snow season across the Western United States, with the majority of basins from Colorado to California reporting (well) below average snowpack through the last days of November. The season is young, so today's numbers aren't necessarily a harbinger of what's to come, but as we get into December we start to really hope to see those numbers climb across the board. For Colorado specifically, the statewide median snowpack is sitting at just 58% as compared to t
Drought
Drought: You won't see this often, Colorado is completely drought free
The latest drought monitor for Colorado was completely blank, not even abnormally dry areas across the map. This is only one of four states that can brag about being drought free. Now, this obviously isn't the first time that Colorado has been drought free but it does not happen often. In the past 23 years, it has only happened one other time - during the El Niño of 2019. You'll probably ask, "How long will it last?" Consider the southwestern part of the state is drying out, this situation won
Weather5280 Insider
Recent rain, El Niño and a look ahead to the North American monsoon
The weather pattern has been active! Get a load of the rainfall anomalies for the past 30 days! Some of the rains that have been happening along and east of the mountains are some of the biggest rains we've seen in a long time. While we still have a ways to go for some areas, this is the type of pattern we've been talking about for months. Late April and May were going to be the "tell" for the developing pattern. Rainfall anomalies for the next two  weeks looks like this: Some areas of the No
Drought
Drought Monitor report: Denver area now drought free, moderate to severe drought persists south and east
It should come as no surprise that recent rainfall across the state has made a big impact on drought conditions across the state. Denver, which as recently as the April 25th Drought Monitor report was classified as being in Moderate Drought is now drought-free, thanks in large part to the record rainfall we saw across the area last week. Here is a look at the Drought Monitor from April 25th
Colorado Weather
Rain delivers impressive totals across much of Colorado, more in the forecast through weekend
Flood Watches across Northeast Colorado are set to expire at noon on Friday, but before they do there's more rain to come and the potential for more wet weather for parts of Colorado through the weekend; flooding alerts may be extended, we shall see. Sunrise this morning revealed just remarkable imagery of our system that continues to pump moisture into Colorado, with light to moderate rain across Northeast Colorado continuing; gradually shifting northeast during the day today: Latest guidan
Weather5280 Insider
Monthly weather outlook: A look at the remainder of May and on into June
The past 30 days have proved to be wetter than recent times in some areas, but not for everyone. Folks in far Southeast Colorado, Southwest Kansas, southward into the Texas Panhandle really benefited from a late April storm. While it was by no means a drought buster, it was certainly a big help. You can see that in the map below, with greens indicating above average precipitation over the last 30 days, and browns below average. The Pacific Ocean has been warming up too. The equatorial Pacific
Weather5280 Insider
Tremendous drought conditions plague Plains, others recover
The big topic is obviously La Niña's departure and warming conditions that will take us into El Niño rather shortly in the ocean conditions. The latest projection for El Niño in the ocean conditions is shown with rather high probabilities. The atmosphere lags behind the ocean's change - so keep that in mind. An El Niño state in the ocean's (as that probability chart depicts) does not mean the weather pattern across the U.S. will be in one for some time. Yet, even with a slow transition, we
Weather5280 Insider
Drought impacts ahead, spring runoff a factor
Drought will remain a significant factor for many on the Plains through April and the months ahead, meanwhile plentiful snowfall will benefit the Western U.S. and Northern Plains. Let's start with the current drought monitor, released today. Exceptional Drought conditions, the warmer color, covers parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. That's a snapshot of conditions during the past week. Here's how some of those values have changed during the past month. Although drought does remain
Colorado River
Colorado River: Better Than Hoped For Snow Season Helps Water Supply Outlook
There's a lot of snow in those Rocky Mountains, the Sierras, and the Cascades to help the water situation across the American West, and the snowpack is so much more impressive than we had expected. Let's break it down closer to the river-basin level across the Western U.S. For a video discussion, here , the written form follows. The measurements used here are based on SNOTEL (Snow Telemetry Network) [https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/aboutUs/monitoring
Weather5280 Insider
With La Niña 'officially' over, a look at where we are headed
Good morning, La Niña is done! Now onto a neutral pattern before El Niño likely establishes itself. This may come with cheers or jeers depending on your perspective and how each affects your operations. Let's walk through some brief details about where we are and where we are headed. La Niña is gone in the sea surface conditions – the ENSO region has warmed quite a lot. Right now, the westernmost region (4) is the coolest and the easternmost region, (1.2) is warmest. Moments of La Niña contin
Weather5280 Insider
Weather remains active across the West, with outlook cooler and wetter than average
For those of you in Colorado, a nice break in the action for a couple of days, but more winter is on the horizon, particularly for the high country and perhaps northeast Colorado too. If you missed it, here is a link to snowfall totals from across the state from the latest storm, as well as a map of season-to-date totals for Colorado: Denver Weather: Snow clears, melts and next storm on the wayIt’s Thursday morning, and although quite cold, we have sunshine and warmer temperatures on the way u
Weather5280 Insider
La Niña rapidly weakens, what that means for our weather as we move through February and into spring
As I write this update, I remain most interested in what happens to La Niña this month. During January we saw a rapid warming of the sea surface temperatures, especially in the 1.2 ENSO region and I anticipate further warming with another MJO wave to move into that region this month. Let's begin with this topic before turning to the month's outlook for precipitation and temperatures. Here are the sea surface temperatures averaged from January 20th through February 4th, 2023. Colder than normal
Colorado Snowpack
Western U.S. snowpack and reservoir storage update; new drought numbers are in
Considering the recent flow of moisture toward the western U.S. from the Pacific (atmospheric river events), let's check in on how the water situation looks presently, particularly the Colorado River system. Just after Christmas, a series of atmospheric rivers brought dangerous amounts of rain and snow to California during a 3-week period. So
Drought
Recent moisture improves Colorado's drought outlook; a check on snowpack across the West
Some good news to share from the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor report released on Thursday, and that is that now more than a third (39%) of Colorado has been removed from the Abnormally Dry or Drought classification categories as determined by the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is up from just 13.75% a week ago. We also saw great improvement in the D2 Severe Drought category, with more than 30% of the state falling into th
Weather5280 Insider
January's weather outlook across Colorado and the region
January starts off with a bang across the West with a steady supply of moisture hitting California and then fanning out to surrounding states, Colorado included. We recently wrote about the next wave of moisture adding to flooding issues for California, and the latest snowpack numbers there: Atmospheric River delivering torrential rain, snow, and wind to California; significant flooding possible this weekOne storm is not a drought buster, however, the current extended pattern in place over Ca
Atmospheric River
Atmospheric River delivering torrential rain, snow, and wind to California; significant flooding possible this week
One storm is not a drought buster, however, the current extended pattern in place over California could make a significant dent in the ongoing drought there – but at a cost. Precipitation totals along coastal California (northern California in particular) have been significant over the last 14 days, with heavy snow inundating the Sierra Nevada mountains – delivering feet upon feet of snow, and precipitation totals in excess of 10" over the two week period. Snowfall over the last seven days:
Weather5280 Insider
Regional weather Insiders update: October, 2022
The “leftovers” of the summer monsoon have still been kicking for parts of the Desert Southwest over the last 30 days, but areas farther east have been largely shut-out. You can see how much drier it was for Southeast Colorado, Southwest Kansas, and the Panhandles, versus areas farther west and north. Zoomed in to Colorado one can see that for many locations the last month has actually been a positive in the precipitation department, even as some parts of the state (particularly the southeast
Climate
With few exceptions, the 2022 water year was exceptionally dry across the central and southern plains
The numbers for the 2022 water year, the period ranging from October 1, 2021 to September 30th, 2022, are in. For many folks living across the central and southern plains of the United States it was another starkly dry year, with some locations seeing their driest water year on record. > What is a water year? The term U.S.Geological Survey "water year" in reports that deal with surface-water supply is defined as the 12-month period October 1, for any given year through September 30, of the fol
Drought
Recent moisture puts dent in drought for Colorado, but drought persists for most of state
As many of the readers of this site have pointed out this summer, the recent rainfall hasn't impacted everyone equally. Still, it's mostly positive news when it comes to this summer's monsoon, with much of Arizona, New Mexico, and increasingly Colorado seeing above average precipitation this summer. Over the last 60 days we see the areas that have seen above average precipitation across much of the Four Corners region, while the central and southern plains have remained drier than average: N
La Niña
July La Niña and monsoon update
Plenty to sort through with this update, and based on what I'm seeing we have a lot riding on it too. First, let's look at what La Niña and rest of the global sea surface temperature anomalies have been doing, for the past 90 days. 1. Despite La Niña being very much alive, it has been weakening a bit recently. Notice less blue shading along the equatorial Pacific. 2. The colder than average water that was in the Gulf of Alaska and along the West Coast of the US has also been warming
Denver Forecast
70s with increased rain chances this weekend, Denver
A strong cold front will arrive to cool the weekend by 20 to 30 degrees across parts of Colorado. Denver area high temperatures Friday will be in the 90s, but only 60s and 70s Saturday and Sunday. Across the state Friday: Saturday: Sunday: This cold front will also collide with some moisture across the region to increase the chance for rain, particularly across southern Colorado. Estimated total precipitation through the weekend: Potential 3-day rainfall totals for Northern Front Range:
Fire Weather
Extreme fire danger today, weekend moisture limited for Front Range and Denver
A dangerous combination of elements has come together today to give much of region extreme fire danger conditions should one be ignited. The map above is a product issued by the Storm Prediction Center as a general guidance tool. More specific information and alert issuance is done at the local level, and this is the Friday morning briefing provided by the NWS office in Boulder. There is a lot going on today, beyond and yet related
Weather5280 Insider
February, 2022 La Niña update and what that may mean for precipitation patterns as we head toward spring and summer
We are midway through the winter, and with that it's time drop you a note about what La Niña is up to. First, a look at SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies across the equatorial Pacific: The above animation runs from early November through late January. Notice the blue shading really shrinking across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This is occurring at the surface of the ocean, and shows those anomalies not only becoming smaller, but also of less magnitude. The animation below sho