I should begin by saying, forecasts made in November struggle. Largely this is due to the atmosphere which is working to change itself from its summer (~5 wave pattern) to winter pattern (~3 wave pattern), and during that change, there are some chaotic moments, especially during November. When we deal with this, projections can suffer from this "outside noise," and the relative stability of winter helps improve skill scores for forecasts. The same can be said for April when we flip-back. With t