February’s weather pattern has a chance to deliver lots of moisture for the Front Range and Plains. If you reread that sentence, you’ll see, “chance.” This El Niño winter has had moments of delivering lots of snow to the state – think back to the epic two weeks of snow for our Colorado resorts, especially Steamboat Resort (third snowiest January since 08/09 season) [https://www.instagram.com/p/C2is1jEgfMv/?utm_source=ig_embed&ig_rid=0846d993-9761-4a7a-9e95-14e308dee

La Niña remains in record territory as one of the strongest on record. The third-consecutive La Niña winter is headed our way, only the 3rd time this has happened since 1950. This in and of itself will have a strong influence on the winter outlook across North America.  There are factors in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean that need consideration, too, when looking at the snow forecast ahead. This video update begins with the latest La Niña data and how other ocean areas are shaping and will sh

La Niña continues and appears very set on being with us for a third winter in a row, which is rare as it has only happened twice before. This has implications across the American West for water issues along the Colorado River (Lake Mead will continue to make headlines) due to La Niña's propensity for drought in the Southwest.

These kind of outlooks are always popular among social media channels when hype-driven terms and baseless projections scream for epic snowfall. There is a scientific basis that can and should be applied for a general understanding of where seasons are headed in terms of temperatures and precipitation. I explain more about the thinking and method in the video below, but the bottom line is that in longer ranges an almanac/climatology becomes one of the stronger forecast methods. Take a 14-day f

In the early part of September we released our initial long range outlook for the cold season which is now upon us. As promised, today we revisit that post a bit, will see what's changed and what's stayed the same, and issue our annual winter (season) outlook for Denver, Colorado, and the region. In most respects, our thoughts from a month ago have c

We're about a month away from issuing our official winter outlook we do each year in early to mid October. Today we'll take a look at some of the big drivers we are watching for the next half a year or so, as we begin our shift from the warm (hot) season to the cool season. La Niña will spread its impact across the country for the second year in a row leaving the West in dire need of water. Ocean conditions point toward continued drought for the

An early season snow this September gave the illusion that winter may come early this year, much like it did in 2019. This was clearly not to be, with exceptional warmth and drought continuing to be the dominant weather pattern across the greater region. This, of course, should come as no surprise if you've been following our long-range outlooks over the last year or so. A

Yesterday we released our winter outlook for the 2018-19 season . If you are not an Insider, we hope that you'll consider signing up today . Becoming a Weather5280 Insider means you are helping to support the daily content on Weather5280.com. We are so grateful to all those who have made the commitment of $5/month to keep this project going for another year. If you are curious to follow along with our long-ra

It is no secret that we've been dry and very warm for weeks. In fact, we saw cooler weather and mountain snow back in August than we have had during this "fall". Here we are at the end of October, and I am growing more and more worried every day. I am worried that the dry and warm weather is being fueled by a weather pattern that is not only going to be VERY hard to break down but that when it does break down, it won't last long. If you are signed up to be a Weather5280 Insider or a

I am not going to spend much time on the main drivers with this update. We have talked about them at length in previous posts , and I think you pretty much know what they are. We've touched on analogs in previous posts too, but not in a lengthy fashion. The main reason for that is that there really isn't a "perfect" analog when it comes to referencing the next several months. Of the analogs chosen, those years with a strong El Niño, a positive PDO, and a positive AMO

There are a lot of comparisons to the El Niño of 1997 taking place right now, and while certainly an analog to this year, there are some differences to keep an eye on before jumping head-first into the repeat boat. Each El Niño is its own animal. When looking at analog years, it's important to remember that what's happening in Niño regions isn't the only factor to weigh. It's important to also consider things like: where the Niño is occurring within the greater long-term cycle; is it in its fir

About a month ago I talked a lot about the course we are likely on as we head into fall. I addressed the potential for an El Niño and what type, and reiterated that our top analog for the next several months is late 2009 and early 2010. What happened in late 2009 and 2010? See for yourself… The above map shows the temperature anomalies (or departures from normal) from September 2009 through March 2010. All of that blue a