Matt Makens

By now we look for hopeful signs of relief, however, the drought continues with
little relief in sight for the driest areas. We near the 11/15 deadline for PRF
insurance and many of you may be looking to build up heavy policies for early
2021. (see the very end of this article).

The latest drought monitor continues to show the ongoing issues for the Four
Corners region and the continued Extreme to Exceptional Drought in parts of
Texas.



Let's check the recent conditions via The National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln:

Summary

"A dry pattern continued this past week over large portions of the continental
United States, with a few exceptions being areas impacted by Hurricane Delta or
its remnants, parts of the Upper Midwest and middle Missouri River Valley, and
parts of the Northeast. In areas of the Northeast that received an inch or two
of rain, some improvements were made in the ongoing drought areas there. As a
storm system and associated cold front brought showers and thunderstorms to
parts of the Middle and Upper Missouri River Valley and to the Upper Midwest,
some improvements were made to ongoing drought there. Abnormal dryness abated in
a few areas of Louisiana and Mississippi, which received copious rainfall from
Hurricane Delta. Degradations or persistence of ongoing drought was common in
parts of the Midwest, Great Plains, and West that received little or no
precipitation this week. Temperatures this week were warmer than normal across
most of the Lower 48. The central Great Plains and middle Missouri River Valley
were the warmest compared to normal, with temperatures from 9 to 12 degrees
above normal common. New England experienced milder conditions this week, with a
few below-normal readings taking place in northern Vermont, New Hampshire, and
Maine."

Observations

The precipitation for the past two weeks shown as the percent of normal
precipitation:



The past 30 days:

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through the 22nd is not
favorable for precipitation in the drought's hardest hitting areas.



Of that precipitation shown above, here is the amount of snow for the next seven
days:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after we see a consensus drier than average conditions
across the west.


The Outlook: Month

For the next month, the projected wetter than average areas are shown in
greens/blues, drier than average in the browns/reds.

Bottom Line

With the above forecast, it is easy to conclude the drought will remain and will
spread into additional acreage. The yellow areas below are those that are likely
to enter drought during the rest of October.

PRF Insurance

I mentioned above the 11/15 deadline is coming up. I've been looking into the
most similar years we've experienced as a historic baseline headed into 2021.
That and the latest modeling data conclude that many owners will want to be
heavily insured early in 2021. 

Here's an example of a partial analysis done for Southeastern Colorado which
shows the average precipitation from the past most similar years, the result is
the frequency of wet years in this pattern. That, and factor in modeling data,
to get a strong idea of how to place your 'bets' for 2021. 

This particular analysis of past events and the latest computer models show dry
conditions are more likely than anything else for the first half of 2021.

Drought update & the outlook: October 15th, 2020