Matt Makens

While the recent storms delivered some moisture, it won't be enough to reverse
trends. T
[https://www.weather5280.com/2020/10/15/drought-update-the-outlook-october-15th-2020/]
hat trend has been increased drought week to week, this week is no exception.

Below is a look at the difference between this week(left) and last week(right),
the acreage in exceptional drought has increased. Notably in Arizona, Colorado,
New Mexico and Texas: 

Here is a look at the latest drought monitor, issued today but valid as of
November 17th:

This week's Drought Monitor summary: 

> Heavy precipitation – from 2 to locally near 8 inches – pelted the Carolinas,
southern Appalachians, mid-Atlantic region, Pacific Northwest from the Cascades
westward, higher elevations of the northern Intermountain West and western
Wyoming, northeastern Wisconsin, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula. Lesser amounts
of 0.5 to locally over 2 inches dampened most of a large area from eastern
sections of the central and northern Great Plains eastward through the middle
and upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes Region, Appalachians, and Atlantic
Coast States. Similar amounts fell on lower elevations of the northern
Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, light precipitation at best
fell on the central and western Gulf Coast States, most of the Plains, and the
Southwest. Meanwhile, temperatures were generally cool in the West and warm in
the East. Temperatures average 12 to 15 degrees F above normal from the
Carolinas through Alabama. above normal from the High Plains of subnormal
temperatures. In contrast, it was 8 to 12 degrees F cooler than normal from
Montana southward through Utah, Arizona, the Southwest and the Great Basin. This
pattern brought areas of improvement to parts of the Northeast the western Ohio
Valley, the northern half of the Mississippi Valley, and northern sections of
the Rockies, Intermountain West, and Pacific Northwest. In stark contrast,
conditions deteriorated through most of central and eastern Texas, parts of the
central Great Plains, the southern High Plains, and the central tier of the Four
Corners States. As the period ended, dryness had persisted or worsened
throughout the large area of entrenched drought from the Rockies westward, and
dry conditions were intensifying quickly across Texas and the central Plains.
The observations:

The past two weeks.

And the last 30 days.

The Outlook: Week 1

The precipitation outlook for the next week, running through the 26th, is
favorable for the far northwestern US and the East. 



The amount of snow for the next seven days favors very few areas:


The Outlook: Week 2

And, looking at the week after, through the first few days of December, we see a
consensus on wetter than average conditions across the Pacific NW and Southeast
but likely drier than average conditions across most of the nation's midsection:


Bottom Line

With the above outlooks, we are likely on our way to verifying the November
drought outlook which called for drought to expand, as shown here in the yellow
areas:

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, November 19th, 2020