Matt Makens

There was just a little bit if change to the drought monitor this week versus
last, but for the Four Corners and High Plains we could see those drought
numbers increase during the next couple of weeks.

Here's the latest drought monitor, and data table which shows little change in
the past week.

And, the summary as provided by UNL:

"This U.S. Drought Monitor week saw some modest improvements in drought
conditions across portions of the Southwest, southern Great Plains, South, lower
Midwest, and portions of the Northeast. Drought-related conditions deteriorated
in southern California, the southern Great Basin, Texas, Minnesota, and parts of
New England. In California, storm activity during the weekend delivered
beneficial rain and snow to areas of central and northern California; however,
the southern part of the state remained dry. Since January 1, areas of
California—including portions of the eastern Sierra and Sacramento Valley—have
received less than 25% of normal precipitation. The impact of both short- and
long-term dryness in parts of California has been affecting the cattle ranching
industry with numerous drought impact reports describing severe impacts to
pasture and rangeland conditions as well as reports of ranchers having to sell
livestock. Fortunately, another round of storms is expected to impact northern
California this week bringing valley rains and mountain snows to the region. In
the southern Great Basin, record dryness during the past 6-month period led to
expansion of areas of Exceptional Drought (D4) in the eastern Sierra Nevada and
southern Nevada. In the Southwest, both Arizona and New Mexico received light
rains across parts of the lower deserts as well as some mountain snowfall in
northern Arizona and northern New Mexico, providing a much-needed boost to soil
moisture levels. Elsewhere, above-normal precipitation during the past
30-to-60-day period and snowfall this week in northern portions of the Texas
Panhandle and Oklahoma Panhandle, led to removal of areas of drought. Further to
the south in the Hill Country and South Texas Plains, drought intensified in
response to persistent warm and dry conditions as well as mounting precipitation
deficits ranging from 2-to-8+ inches during the past 90-day period. Conversely,
areas along the coastal plains of northeastern Texas received 1-to-2+ inch
accumulations during the past week leading to widespread improvements on the
map. In the Midwest, wetter-than-normal conditions during the past 30-to-60-day
period led to minor improvements on the map in central Illinois and northern
Indiana. Likewise, portions of western New York saw improvement on the map in
response to recent storm activity."

At this point, the drought is here to stay for quite some time. Consider the
following map that shows how much precipitation is needed to recover:

Those totals, some are well over six inches needed are not going to happen
anytime soon. There are years where the mountains can accumulate a lot of
snowfall to help with spring runoff to help abate the needed moisture.

However, looking at snowpack we can see that most river basins are also going to
struggle based on the current snowpack numbers which are mostly below normal.

So, bottom line is that we need moisture to fall. Let's look at the outlook for
the next week and see precipitation potential:

Same idea, but looking only at snowfall:

In both cases, the next week looks lacking in needed moisture and snowfall for
the hardest hit drought areas.

I did post an insider forecast that points to a hopeful wetter outlook at the
end of the year
[https://www.weather5280.com/2020/12/17/second-half-of-december-may-rely-on-late-month-snowfall/] 
for the central US. Until then, drought remains and/or worsens for the hardest
hit areas.

Drought update & the outlook: Thursday, December 17th, 2020