Weather5280

On the whole, we expect most areas in the Central US, to end with average to below average precipitation, and temperatures average to above average. Much like the pattern from 2020.

February weather and climate outlook for the Central US

Current Drought Monitor: 
We were fortunate to capitalize on a couple of storms over the last month to
hold drought creep to a minimum, and even managed some areas of improvement from
our last update as well. Below is the latest drought monitor as of January 12,
2021:

There was little change to conditions across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas
in the last month. Severe to Extreme Drought continues for these areas as we
start the new year. 

As you can see in the comparison below, mostly unchanged – across the Palmer
Divide the Exceptional Drought conditions worsened a bit, but that’s about it:

Somewhat remarkably, given the ongoing La Nina
[https://www.weather5280.com/2021/01/03/status-on-la-nina-and-latest-nmme-model-outlook]
, where we did see improvement over the last month was across the Texas/Oklahoma
panhandles, you can see the difference in the comparison images below:

The next month:
January is usually a pretty dry month for our region - other than in the
mountains - so we usually don’t rely on anything significant to help when we are
in a drought. 

On the whole, we expect most areas in the Central US, to end with average to
below average precipitation, and temperatures average to above average. Much
like the pattern from 2020.

As we look ahead to February, we see seasonal models looking a little more like
La Nina in the overall pattern than what we are seeing right now. This means a
tendency for above average temperatures across the Southwest, perhaps chillier
at times across the High Plains, and a generally average to below average
precipitation pattern across the region, with greatest positive precipitation
anomalies showing up for the Pacifica Northwest and upper Midwest. Bottom line,
more likely than not to stay average to drier than average for our region.


EURO Seasonal Model Temperature Forecast 
February, 2021

Warmer than average temperatures shown in reds, cooler in blues, neutral in
gray.

EURO Seasonal Model Precipitation Forecast 
February, 2021

Wetter than average conditions shown in greens and blues, drier in the browns,
and neutral in gray.

A look ahead to February, knowing how dry we are currently