Matt Makens

For several days there has been a system poised to bring moisture to the Denver area to kick off February. Snow could be heavier than we've seen in quite a while for Denver.

Potential system for the start of February

For several days there has been a system poised to bring moisture to the Denver
area to kick off February.

The trough that may swing through is expected by Wednesday the 3rd is shown
here.

And 24 hours later that trough has deepened quite a bit as is passes over
Colorado.

The result, based on current projections is some snow for the Front Range and
eastern plains, 3-day projected snowfall totals for the system:

And, a similar look from the GEFS 4-day snowfall totals:

When looking at the analogs centered on the 3rd, we see a history of wetter than
average conditions during similar storm flows.

To add further support to that analog output, the MJO is projected to move into
Phase 7 and, for our region, the precipitation composite for Phase 7 is similar
to that analog map above.

Despite drier than average conditions for most of Northern Colorado since
January 1st, it is of interest to note that during La Niña situations the
northern Front Range has a correlation to an uptick in precipitation. 

Although, to end the two-month period wetter than average seems unlikely given
persistence.

Nonetheless we have a system to watch for the next week.