Matt Makens

Drought areas across the Continental United States are not likely to improve but there will be areas of wetter than normal conditions as La Niña's pattern is established for February.

Drought areas are not likely to improve but there will be areas of wetter than
normal conditions as La Niña's pattern is established for February.

Before we get to the outlook I want to update you on the drought and soil
moisture conditions as of early February.

First, the drought monitor, which has changed little.

The Southwest is really hurting for moisture. And, the outlook for drought this
February shows little improvement, rather drought development from Texas to
Florida - that is closely tied to La Niña:

Let's look at root zone soil moisture at the start of February.

And the forecast for root zone moisture through February shows drying conditions
for much of the West and Southeast.

We can see some areas to highlight for wetter conditions. The Northern High
Plains to Great Lakes is an example where we see wetter soil as well as a wetter
outlook.

Looking at one particular model's estimation of precipitation through
mid-February, we see wetter than average conditions are possible in the Northern
High Plains to northern Rockies.

And a look at a different model's estimation for the same time period:

Where we have had wetter soil, is likely to continue with wetter than average
conditions with the exception of the Southeast. A period of wet weather there is
not likely to last long as drought forecasts and soil conditions indicate rapid
drying toward the end of February.

It's quite likely that the worst of the current drought areas will continue.
There's little indication that precipitation will amount to very much across
much of the West and Southwest. 

The windward side of the Colorado Rockies may do well with precipitation for a
time, which is 'typical' in a La Niña period. 

I want to take a moment to highlight the snowfall potential, with more
significant snowfall for parts of the Corn Belt. The following is an estimation
of total snowfall from 6 Feb to 21 Feb:

At the same time we see snowfall in these areas, much of the US will be cold.
Quite cold in fact. 

Significantly colder conditions are expected across the Northern to Central, and
at times the Southern, US. for much of mid-February.

We will have more on significant cold in a future post. The takeaway from this
post is that La Niña's influence on the drought and outlook remain on track to
see the drought remain and in some cases spread.

Northern Plains to Great Lakes most likely to favor from February weather pattern