Matt Makens

More than 88 million acres of crops are experiencing drought conditions
according to Drought.gov. Exceptional drought conditions spread into California,
meanwhile, drought conditions improved and/or removed from parts of northern
Colorado, and the northeastern US.

Clearly, the vast majority of the West is hurting for moisture.

Let's look at precipitation since the year started.

Now, look at precipitation just since April 1st.

Yes, there has been some wetness for a section of Colorado, New Mexico, bits of
the plains, and from Texas across the South. Mostly though, we have a lot of
dryness across the Lower 48.

In the latest update for drought conditions across the Northwestern US,
NOAA/NIDIS had the following statistics:

> Statewide total March and April precipitation ranks as the driest on record for
Idaho, 2nd driest for Oregon, 3rd driest for Montana, and 4th driest for
Washington since 1895.
So, where are we headed to round out May, likely remaining on track to be drier
than average for most of the Continental US, however we may see an uptick in
precipitation for the Central Plains centered on Kansas.

This is an estimate of total precipitation to come through the next couple of
weeks (through 28 May).

The image above looks impressive for rainfall totals with parts of Kansas and
Texas to possibly receive more than 5 inches total rainfall, however, let's look
at the moisture in terms of average.

The following two images are the precipitation anomalies for the next couple of
weeks. The top image is from European modeling, the bottom image is American
modeling.

There are similarities between the two, both indicate the wetness in the center
of the US, meanwhile the vast majority of those surrounding the center will be
drier than average.

The areas that are likely to be mostly drier than average are those hard hit
drought areas. These places will also likely be warmer than average for the rest
of May. Some significant wind events may take place in the Northern Plains to
make drying there even faster.

With that said, expect drought conditions in the Dakotas and Montana to worsen
this month. The Western US, especially California, will likely see exceptional
drought growth. However, drought conditions from Texas to Kansas may see some
improvement during the short-term.

Next week, we will take a look at soil moisture and vegetation greenness to see
where things are off to a slow versus quick start this growing season.

Drought update & the outlook: Friday, May 14th, 2021