Brendan Heberton

No real surprises in June as the pattern, generally speaking, held true to prior
months. Wet areas generally remained wet, and dry areas dry. This is especially
true for the west coast (which remained quite dry) and places along the
immediate Front Range, which remained wetter than average.

With that, we see drought conditions continue to worsen across much of the west,
but areas across Eastern Colorado and Western Kansas remain drought-free. 


The most recent Drought Monitor was published on June 29th, so it won’t have
accounted for some of the positive precipitation anomalies we’ve seen across New
Mexico and Northern Texas. These areas are still dealing with drought
conditions, but the last 14 days have undoubtedly helped in that regard. Here
are the latest precipitation anomalies over the previous seven days, with the
blues and greens indicating areas that have received above-average precipitation
over the period. 


In our previous update, you’ll recall areas across Eastern New Mexico and
Northwest Texas were most likely to see drought improvement over the last month.
We expect to see that reflected in future Monitor updates.

Next two weeks
Generally speaking, models have been too far south and east with where they want
to focus the heaviest precipitation in the medium and long-term outlooks. We
continue to see a persistent pattern of average to wetter than average weather
for those areas that have been wet since mid-spring. We saw this in June, and it
could be the same result of July in many instances.

For the next two weeks, we expect much of New Mexico and Texas to see
above-average precipitation. This is especially true the farther south you are,
as this is where the most significant moisture associated with the annual
monsoonal flow is located. 


For Denver, the driest days of the next ten are expected now through the
weekend, with perhaps an uptick in storm activity by early next week if current
data holds. 

This is true too for Southeast Colorado, where the upcoming days are expected to
remain quite hot and dry, with some (but perhaps not a lot) of moisture back in
the forecast next week: 

As is typical during the summer months, those areas that see the best
precipitation will also see the coolest temperatures relative to average over
the next two weeks. Oppressive heat will continue across the Great Basin,
California, and the Pacific Northwest, with cooler than average temperatures
expected for much of the Southern Plains.

Regionally we see the next week will feature some impressive heat at times, with
temperatures for many areas across Eastern Colorado approaching or breaking the
100F degree mark today and tomorrow before we cool a bit for the weekend. 

Much as drought begets drought, so too does wet. This positive feedback loop
will continue to promote better precipitation chances for those seeing frequent
storms and keep dry areas dry. Even as the overall pattern becomes less
favorable for storm coverage across Eastern Colorado and West Texas, the
calculated soil moisture map to end June shows positive anomalies remain in this
region, which will continue to feed daily storm chances.

Next month
The area of concern for drought development will be across the northern high
plains, specifically across Nebraska, extreme Northeast Colorado, and Northern
Kansas. Here we’ve seen a period of much drier than average conditions in recent
weeks (see maps above). With a stunted monsoonal flow, the overall pattern may
continue to contribute to deteriorating conditions and drought development.

The areas expected to see continued improvement are across western and southern
New Mexico and Northwest Texas.

Extended outlook features a boost of monsoonal moisture for the south and a drier outlook north