Brendan Heberton

Ridging sets up over the next couple of days following yesterday's wind event
and Tuesday's wind and precipitation which managed to deliver the first couple
inches of snow to portions of the Palmer Divide Tuesday evening. 

With that, we look for temperatures to moderate for today and Friday, and stay
generally warm (but perhaps cooler than Friday) on Saturday. 

As you can see, but Sunday cooler weather will be ushered into the region as a
large trough sets up to our northeast. This will put northeast Colorado under
the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft, a pattern that will hold with us
for much of next week and could at times drape rain and snow showers across the
Plains and urban corridor. 

Embedded in the northwest flow will be pockets of greater energy. How organized
these are as they move through, how much moisture they will have, and how far
south they come will all determine if Denver manages its first measurable snow
of the season by early next week or not. Some data has indicated a potent little
shortwave bringing measurable snow to the urban corridor in the Monday/Tuesday
timeframe, but consistency in that data is just not there yet, and if there is a
trend it's been to back away from this solution for now. 

A look at the last eight runs from the GFS for Monday night shows this. Some
runs have had snow over the area, others rain, others nothing at all. The trend
has generally been away from a heavier snow event for us, but other models
continue to indicate at least a light snow event is on the table, with timing
varying depending on the model from Monday evening to Tuesday evening. 

While a northwest flow can be sneaky and deliver some locally heavy banded snow
due in part to jet-enhanced snow showers
[https://www.weather5280.com/2020/10/27/jet-enhanced-banded-snowfall-what-is-it-and-how-did-it-contribute-to-the-october-25th-snowstorm-in-colorado]
, these setups are also often moisture-starved, which is what most models are
indicating to be the case this time. 

For Denver, we see the increased chance of precipitation by Saturday
night/Sunday, then again in the Monday night/Tuesday night timeframe. Neither
show impressive probabilities just yet. 

The flow aloft will favor what precipitation we do manage to see to fall across
Northeast Colorado vs southern portions of our state. The same probabilities for
Pueblo are much lower: 

With cool air in place, the pattern next week is probably less of a question of
whether we'll see rain or snow, but rather if we'll see snow. Temperatures
Sunday will be in the 30s and 40s across the plains, so most showers we'll see
will probably be snow, and if we see a stronger shortwave come through Monday or
Tuesday it should have enough cold air to work with to produce mostly snow. 

So for now, we know the pattern will shift to a cooler one, with northeast
Colorado under the influence of a northwesterly flow aloft from Sunday through
at least the middle part of next week. Now we need to watch for subtleties in
that flow and if any pockets of better organized energy will slide across the
region and deliver some snow! 

Right now our gamblers aren't exactly bullish, but are also not shy about the
potential some cities could see their first snow of the season on the way.

Snow for northeast Colorado by Sunday? Possible as chilly pattern sets up for next week