Denver weather: Snow is moving into Colorado, when and where it's forecast to hit

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The storm system that we've been discussing for the past week remains on track and will deliver snow to Colorado through Tuesday, but for eastern Colorado the biggest impact remains northeast of Denver and the greater metro area.

The data has been, in my opinion, remarkably consistent between updates and has been for nearly a week now. That's odd to me that it hasn't shown any real variations to the track and intensity of the storm. As we've discussed previously, the track is such that the biggest impact misses the city and hits along I-76 into Nebraska. We have been watching for any potential changes in the center of the storm system, but no changes have appeared through Monday morning's data. In this post, we have adjusted snowfall totals to reflect the greater confidence in the storm's motion and speed.

A video presentation on the storm and its impacts across the country including blizzard conditions to tornadoes.

So, here's the overall impact areas. The biggest impact on the metro areas will be overnight through the Tuesday morning commute.

We have a number of warnings in place across northern Colorado, but the Northeastern Plains have the most hazards highlights at this time. We talked about wind being an issue in yesterday's post, that that certainly is a factor and why there is a blizzard warning on the Plains.

That blizzard warning:

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT MST TUESDAY NIGHT...  
* WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations   between 4 and 10 inches. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph.  

* WHERE...Fort Morgan, Byers, Sterling, and Akron.  

* WHEN...From Midnight tonight to Midnight MST Tuesday Night.  

* IMPACTS...Visibility will be near zero at times resulting in   whiteout conditions. Travel will be treacherous and potentially   life-threatening. Road closures and impassable roads are likely.   Strong winds will cause extensive drifting snow and may cause   minor damage and power outages. Strong winds will continue to   cause drifting snow in northeastern Colorado on Wednesday and   possibly into Thursday.

Travelers out of Denver headed to Wyoming or Nebraska should certainly delay their plans.

Considering the consistency in the data, and short-range modeling now added into consideration we have dropped totals a bit for the urban corridor as we don't need to hedge those higher totals as much it appears in the metro areas, but we do need to continue to consider deeper totals over the northeastern corner of the state. For instance, the HRRR (below) shows a rather dramatic cutoff from little to no snow along I-25, to upwards of 10" for portions of the northeast plains from this system. So close, yet so far!  

Snowfall forecast
With that in consideration, here's our latest snowfall forecast for you. Is there still time for the storm to shift and bring a greater impact into Denver? Yes, but the odds are dropping as that storm is now entering the state.

This breaks down to roughly the following:

  • Colorado Springs: 0 -2" from south to north of the city
  • Denver: T - 3"
  • Denver (DIA): 2 - 5"
  • Boulder: T - 2"
  • Loveland/Fort Collins: T - 3"
  • Fort Morgan/Sterling: 6-10+"

As far as the timing of the action, here's an example using Denver, with the neighboring cities sharing a similar timeline.

The biggest impact will be overnight tonight through the Tuesday morning commute.

As this system clears, we have a rather chilly week and weekend ahead, tis the season!