Only a few brief showers this evening for the metro as drier and more stable air has been the dominant feature to start the week. Wednesday storm chances increase a bit as moisture returns to the Front Range and eastern Colorado once more.
The current severe outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather only across the far eastern portions of Colorado, but we expect this could change with their next update, with the slight risk area including more of eastern Colorado.
The NAM has a good round of storms firing along the Front Range early tomorrow afternoon, then pushing east into the evening.
There will certainly be more support for storm development tomorrow. Dew points this afternoon have been in the 20s, 30s, and 40s across eastern Colorado this afternoon (left), but are forecast to climb into the 50s for northeast Colorado tomorrow afternoon.
A cold front backing in tomorrow afternoon will help trigger these storms, and also cool us a few degrees for Wednesday night and Thursday. Decent CAPE values (1000-2000), and some shear should help a few of the storms strengthen Wednesday afternoon. Currently expecting the stronger storms to favor the Palmer Ridge, with the possibility of a few storms turning severe. For now the greatest threat for severe storms appears to be along and north of I-70, with the primary concerns being brief heavy rain, hail and wind.
We'll keep an eye on things tonight as more data comes in and pass along any updates as needed!