Update: Severe Weather Threat Today, Flash Flooding Concerns

It’s shaping up to be an active 24 hours for Colorado. After seeing another round of showers and storms Monday, Tuesday evening is looking to be more even more widespread with rain and storms. We pinpointed today as our greatest severe weather threat, and that appears to hold true. The Storm Prediction Center continues with a Slight Risk for severe weather for the eastern half of Colorado for today.

We should see ingredients start to come together for a few severe storms by mid to late afternoon and into Tuesday evening. A short wave approaching from the north with help enhance the severe weather threat across the region. While the severe weather threat is of concern, so too will be the flash flooding threat, especially as we head into the overnight hours and through the day Wednesday.

Main severe threat will be hail and damaging wind with any of the strongest storms that do develop. Many high resolution models keep best chance for strongest storms late in the day, with best chances after 6pm this evening for Denver. The SPC has 2 - 5% probabilities for tornadoes across eastern Colorado today as well, which seems reasonable. This is the likelihood of a tornado within 25 miles of a given point within the included zone.

Flood concerns Tuesday night and Wednesday
Our attention quickly shifts from the severe threat to flash flooding threats Tuesday night and Wednesday. This type of setup is notorious for producing flash flooding across the eastern half of Colorado. While burn scar areas will be particularly prone to flash flooding, as we’ve seen over the last week, they are not the only places that should be on alert. Recent rains, in combination with slow moving downpours will keep the threat of flash flooding heightened -- even away from burn scars.

The heaviest rains rains over northeast Colorado are expected to occur this afternoon and overnight Tuesday. Flash flooding threat Wednesday will shift south a bit, with the main areas of concern generally south of I-70. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for the Colorado Springs area through this evening, including El Paso and Teller counties and the Rampart Range.

The WPC flash flood risk outlook for Wednesday look pretty good. The flash flood threat will include all of the Front Range foothill communities, then extend into much of southeast Colorado.

WPC Flood risk

Stay up to date on the latest conditions across the area with resources on our current conditions page. We’ll be releasing our most frequent updates over the next 24 to 36 hours on our twitter account (@weather5280).

Temperatures will remain as well, with highs in the mid 70s for Denver, and possibly not out of the 60s for many on the eastern plains. We start to dry things out Thursday a bit, then start a warming trend heading into the week.

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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