Normal November Pattern Settles in, Mountain Snow Through the Weekend

We’ve snapped back to a normal weather pattern this week in Denver after an extended period of bitter cold. Afternoon temperatures in the 40s and low 50s is right on par for the time of year, and this trend will continue right into the weekend.

The afternoon “warmth” is due in part to downsloping northwesterly winds that have also created these periods of standing waveform clouds. The mountain waves are pronounced during times of a strong northwesterly fetch and humidity at the mid-levels.

To the visual forecaster, these cloud formations indicate more than dry/warm-ish Denver days. These also indicate that enough moisture is within the flow to be aware that mountain snow is also possible. Indeed that is the case. Here is the GFS, as a singular example, of the snowfall expected through 5pm Sunday. This assumes a 10:1 ratio, which is underestimate in this type of flow regime. 20:1 would produce double these amounts and would seem more appropriate. I am working on a post discussing our major modeling shortfalls when it comes to snow prediction; you’ll see it in the coming weeks.

WeatherBell Analytics

The northern and central mountains with a north to westerly orientation fare well in these weather patterns. Resorts like Beaver Creek and Vail send lots of press releases on these days, too. Further, Steamboat Springs is known for “champagne powder” during the same periods of time that Denver is warm and under mountain wave clouds.

I chose to stop at 5pm Sunday night for a reason. That reason is that that is when this pattern will take a brief break. A trough, a weak one, will scoot over the state later Sunday through Monday and will bring a slight cooldown to Denver and a chance for our own snow. This is still the GFS, but through 5pm Wednesday night. As of this posting, we aren’t expecting a significant snowfall anywhere outside of the mountains. It’ll be another minor affair for the metro area.

WeatherBell Analytics

As far as the temperature change. Denver will likely go from near 50 Saturday to the 30s for Sunday through Tuesday...also a relatively minor affair.

Bottom line, Thanksgiving skiers and travelers will come away with a pretty good week across Colorado. HOWEVER, I’m guessing many of you will be headed elsewhere for Thanksgiving...east perhaps?

Currently, Buffalo NY is getting walloped with over 5 feet of snow. The Great Lakes region will certainly be a snow covered Thanksgiving from what’s fallen there the past few days.

Carolyn Thompson/AP Photo

Additional snowfall through the next 7 days doesn’t look nearly as major, which is better news for flights to the major hubs back east. Through Thanksgiving Day we will likely see snowfall in these areas:

That’s a lot of snow to fall in Northern Minnesota, but for the most part the upcoming snowfall is quite manageable. HOWEVER, if you are to fly to the northeast Sunday, Monday, or Tuesday there could be great delays as that’s when most of the snow will fall and the wind will be awful around the Great Lakes with that system.

As the snow intensity drops, temperatures will be remain quite cold. If you are setting out that wardrobe for Grandma’s house, pack extra layers for those areas to the east. The quick skiff of snow and “cold” that Denver will feel early in the week will become jarring cold for the eastern half of the country by Thanksgiving.

This is showing above or below average temperatures for Thanksgiving morning. Yes this is showing nearly 20-degrees colder than average for the southeast near Atlanta, and 10-degrees colder than average for New York City. Ugh, we will see Al Roker bundled up again at the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade. Meanwhile, the southwestern quarter of the country will have mild weather, including Denver. For those needing to warm-up, Phoenix, LA, or San Diego will do just that for you.

WeatherBell Analytics

Denver’s Thanksgiving Day weather is still a bit more in question. Several models have been trying to develop our next system by next Thursday and Friday. The EURO/Canadian have been most consistent with this, but the the GFS is seeing it too (at times) to an extent. A long ways out, but something we’re watching, and if it turns out to be true -- those anomalous cold temperatures pictured above will likely be a bit further west as well.

I hope this gives you an early heads up on the coming week. We, of course, will get far more in depth the closer we get to the holiday week. I, for one, am tuning the skis right now and will be hitting Colorado’s fresh powder. I like what I see coming to our mountains this week.

Matt Makens

Matt Makens has won 5 Emmys for his weather coverage. He has the seal of approval from the NWA and is a certified Broadcast Meteorologist as designated by the AMS. He works for Colorado's Own Ch 2.

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