The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, June 27, 2016

Our fairly typical summer weather pattern continues. We've seen some very hot days, followed by beautiful cooler days, and a pretty reliable threat of afternoon storms each day across eastern Colorado.

This week looks like more of the same, with perhaps a greater chance of rain for much of Colorado as we head into the latter half of the week and early next weekend. With that, we'll see temperatures near normal to begin the week, but then they will cool as we head into Thursday and Friday, with highs likely topping out in the low 80s for a few days.

Today
Today we have a Slight Risk for severe storms across the eastern plains as forecast by the Storm Prediction Center. While Denver is not included in the Slight Risk (yellow), there will be a Marginal risk for severe storms along the I-25 urban corridor Monday afternoon as well:

Severe weather outlook for the United States via the SPC and Stormy.af

The HRRR has storms developing across the far eastern plains by early afternoon, and never really develops much activity for the metro areas. With the high-res NAM looking more or less the same this morning, Denver's storm weather threat today likely will be on the lower side, with the greater storm threats developing south and southeast of the city. That said, a storm rolling through the metro areas later this afternoon certainly cannot be ruled out.

Radar forecast for 2pm this afternoon, a few strong storms across far eastern Colorado according to this model | Weather5280 Models

Any storms that do develop will be capable of producing large damaging hail, strong winds, heavy rain, and even a tornado. As always, with the threat of severe weather today, please stay weather aware.

Remainder of week
Tuesday and Wednesday will generally be drier across eastern Colorado, though the chance of afternoon storms will still exist. As we've seen each afternoon over the past few weeks, even on our drier days, a few isolated storms are capable of developing. For Tuesday and Wednesday the greatest chances for storms will likely be east of Denver, with the potential both days for storms that do develop to become severe.

By Thursday we'll see highs several degrees cooler than Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Highs for Denver may only hit 80 degrees or so, with a pretty good chance for storms as well.

While rain chances look pretty good both Thursday and Friday, and perhaps into the weekend, exact placement of where the heaviest rainfall occurs still remains a bit fuzzy. Models tend to differ on this pretty reliably, with some focusing along the northern Front Range and northeast Colorado, while others keep Denver pretty dry and focus the heaviest rainfall east and southeast across the plains of Colorado.

Either way, after today it looks like a trend toward a cooler and wetter period for the state. Take a look at the 850 temperature anomaly forecast for Friday – temperatures will be well below normal across the state, extending northeast into the upper midwest.

Tropical Tidbits

And, here's a look at the seven day GEFS accumulated precipitation anomaly forecast (today through July 4th) showing above normal precipitation for the state for the period.

Tropical Tidbits

We'll keep an eye on things and offer another update as we get a bit further into the week. Moisture will certainly be welcome news, as will a few days of cooler temperatures! Stay tuned!

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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