Texas Update, October, 2016

The last two years have been amazing years of moisture for the state of Texas. Minus a nasty flash drought during the summer of 2015, and there have been no complaints when it comes to moisture. At times, it has been the opposite... So, let's break down what we thing will happen in the next few months.

As of right now, we have a developing/weak La Niña that hasn't fully coupled with the atmosphere. In fact, it may not couple with the atmosphere. Why is that oceanic/atmospheric coupling important? Because it is that coupling that produces the usual impact of a La Niña or El Niño. That being said, it is not necessary to have that coupling to produce an impact. For Texas, a La Niña episode of any strength is usually not a good thing. It usually produces a drying effect ala the map below:

Do models think this La Niña episode will get stronger and produce a stronger impact? No, the various models in the ENSO ensemble show a weak event at best being gone as we head into spring:

The timing of this weak La Niña event weakening is significant. Having a dry winter is one thing...a dry winter and spring is another thing entirely. With all of this in mind, here is what we think will happen during the next several months – first November through January, then January through March. Keep in mind, warmer than normal doesn't mean no cold, it simply means the average over several months will be warmer than normal – similarly for cooler than normal and precipitation.

Temperature Forecast November - January:

Precipitation Forecast November - January:

Temperature Forecast January - March:

Precipitation Forecast January - March:

The real key is what lies beyond March. If we get into a pattern that is wet during April and May, then the dryness can be weathered a lot easier. However, that part of the forecast is still very uncertain. Is it good that any La Niña effect will be gone as we head into spring? Absolutely, and gives us reason for optimism. Stay tuned, as we will be updating you on what lies beyond March in the coming weeks.