The drought that has impacted California for the past few years certainly needs no introduction. The strong El Niño of late 2015 and early 2016 was actually pretty kind to the northern 1/3 of California last winter and spring. However,the failure of El Niño to deliver much needed moisture to the southern 2/3 of California last winter and spring just made a big problem even worse. The anomalously warm water off the west coast of the US has cooled considerably since last year. See the comparison below:

While the water cooling down is a good thing, the problem is that there is still a pretty significant warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska. That warmer than normal water will likely generate a ridge of high pressure that aids to block storms from impacting Southern California. Plus, we have a developing/weak La Niña. For Northern California, a La Niña episode of any strength is usually a good thing. For Southern California, not so much...as it usually produces a drying effect. Typical La Niña impacts are shown below:

Do models think this La Niña episode will get stronger and produce a stronger impact? No, the various models in the ENSO ensemble show a weak event at best being gone as we head into spring:

For Southern California, the timing of this weak La Niña event weakening is significant. Will it be too late to to save the back part of the "wet season"? Possibly, which is very concerning... Northern California will no doubt do better. With all of this in mind, here is what we think will happen during the next several months – first November through January, then January through March. Keep in mind, warmer than normal doesn't mean no cold, it simply means the average over several months will be warmer than normal – similarly for cooler than normal and precipitation.

Temperature Forecast November - January:

Precipitation Forecast November - January:

Temperature Forecast January - March:

Precipitation Forecast January - March:

There is still some uncertainty as to how this will play out, but we feel that the farther north you live, the more moisture you will see. The farther south you live, the exact opposite. Plan accordingly, and we'll keep you updated on the changes as they occur.