Texas Update: November 2nd, 2016

After a very dry October, a slow moving storms is likely going to impact much of Texas in the coming days. At this time, it certainly looks like the western part of the state will reap the biggest rewards. Here is how the GFS Model sees the storm tracking, when it departs the Desert Southwest:

Thursday Evening Upper Level Pattern:

Friday Evening Upper Level Pattern:

Saturday Evening Upper Level Pattern:

Sunday Evening Upper Level Pattern:

While the main storm passes to the north of Texas, the upper level energy and moisture that it utilizes will produce some nice rain totals. The latest GFS Model 5 day precipitation forecast is shown below:

This is clearly a "haves and have nots" type of storm, depending on how it sets up. Plus, I am still not sure how far north the rain better rain ends up. At this point, I do feel pretty good about West Texas and Eastern New Mexico getting the lion share of the rain.

Will this kind of pattern continue? Likely not, as it appears to be somewhat of an anomaly in the prevailing pattern. However, the ECMWF model continues to show some upper level energy remaining "stuck" under a LARGE ridge of high pressure next week. This could perhaps give another round of rain to Texas...especially the eastern part of the state. We'll see...