Since our last update, folks in Northern California have received some great moisture, but the southern tier of the state continues to struggle.

Total Precipitation Last 30 Days

Drought Monitor November 16th

You can see that the drought has really relaxed in far Northern California, but remains awful farther south. This confirms our thoughts a month ago about the potential storm track favoring northern parts of the state.

We are still in a weak La Niña episode and will likely remain that way through the winter. Most computer models show us reverting back to a neutral ENSO status as we head into the spring and summer.

This update will mainly focus on December, January, and February. We'll look at what the various models are saying, then give you are official forecst.

NMME Model Temperature Forecast

December:

January:

February:

NMME Model Precipitation Forecast

December:

January:

February:

CFS Model Temperature Forecast

December:

January:

February:

CFS Model Precipitation Forecast

December:

January:

February:

JAMSTEC Model Temperature Forecast

December, January, February:

JAMSTEC Model Precipiation Forecast

December, January, February:

Temperature Outlook
Again, not much to see here... We continue to think that most of California will see above average temperatures through the heart of the winter. However, folks living in the northern third of the state may see closer to average to slightly below average temperatures. This is due to the more active part of the storm track favoring this location, especially in coming weeks.

Precipitation Outlook
Most of the model output continues to show California struggling with a drier than average pattern this winter. Again, we think the northern third of the state will have average to above average moisture with the southern two thirds of the state seeing mainly below average moisture.