November has been MUCH warmer than average, and mainly drier than average. However, a storm that moved through on November 22nd did produce pockets of decent rain in the Arkansas Valley. However, we need something more widespread and moisture chances that are more frequent ot buck the dry trend. Drought creep is certainly been doing its work...

Drought Monitor November 16th

Total Precipitation Last 30 Days

We are still in a weak La Niña episode and will likely remain that way through the winter. Most computer models show us reverting back to a neutral ENSO status as we head into the spring and summer.

This update will mainly focus on December, January, and February. We'll look at what the various models are saying, then give you are official forecst.

NMME Model Temperature Forecast

December:

January:

February:

NMME Model Precipitation Forecast

December:

January:

February:

CFS Model Temperature Forecast

December:

January:

February:

CFS Model Precipitation Forecast

December:

January:

February:

JAMSTEC Model Temperature Forecast

December, January, February:

JAMSTEC Model Precipiation Forecast

December, January, February:

Temperature Outlook
At this time, we see no reason to depart from a warmer than average winter forecast. All models show Southeast Colorado being under the influence of a stout warm signal, and given recent trends, there is no reason to argue about this. That doesn't mean that we won't see occasional shots of cold air, just not enough to sustain colder than average temperatures.

Precipitation Outlook
The precipitation outlook isn't quite as clear cut. There is a chance that a pattern shift could deliver some much needed moisture during the first couple weeks of December. Recently, the main storm track has remained farther north, which makes us skeptical. So while there is a chance of this happening, we would certainly like to see the shift first before signing off on it. January and February are usually pretty dry times in Southeast Colorado, and this winter looks to be no exception.