As of right now, MOST of Texas is in pretty good shape with moisture. This is mainly due to a storm from a few weeks ago. However, parts of The Panhandle and the far eastern side of the state is kind of hurting for moisture. The drought monitor shown below clearly shows this.

Drought Monitor November 16th

Total Precipitation Last 30 Days

We are still in a weak La Niña episode and will likely remain that way through the winter. Most computer models show us reverting back to a neutral ENSO status as we head into the spring and summer.

This update will mainly focus on December, January, and February. We'll look at what the various models are saying, then give you are official forecst.

NMME Model Temperature Forecast

December:

January:

February:

NMME Model Precipitation Forecast

December:

January:

February:

CFS Model Temperature Forecast

December:

January:

February:

CFS Model Precipitation Forecast

December:

January:

February:

JAMSTEC Model Temperature Forecast

December, January, February:

JAMSTEC Model Precipiation Forecast

December, January, February:

Temperature Outlook
Models continue to show a warmer than average winter for Texas, and we see no reason to disagree with them. This is a reiteration of our original forecast and see no real reason as to why it would change.

Precipitation Outlook
The models really do not show a stout dry signal for all of Texas. It seems as though the farther south and southwest you go, the stronger the dry signal in the models. We continue to think that the state will be average to drier than average for the winter season. When the weak La Niña signal fades this spring, we may flip to a more active weather pattern.