January 14th, 2017: Storm Update

If you've been following us, you know there is some serious model disagreement with this storm. The GFS basically doesn't think much of this storm. The Canadian Model does better for Southeast Colorado, and the latest NAM is doing better too:

NAM Model Snowfall Potential

Canadian Model Snowfall Potential

While the Canadian Model does not agree with the EURO Model, the NAM and EURO are in pretty good agreement. This storm won't be a cold one, and there will likely be a rain/ice/snow mix for places like Eads, Lamar, and Springfield early in the storm. However, it will eventually turn to snow. The liquid to snow ratio will likely be in the 10:1 ratio range. With that in mind, I have posted the EURO ensemble mean graphics below. The green bar represents the mean of the 51 members of the model. It is usually a pretty good starting point for total moisture. So, if your area has 0.60" of moisture, multiply that by ten for snowfall potential in inches...6" Keep in mind, places like Lamar that show over an inch of liquid will likely have some of that precipitation not accumualate as snow. I would say around 0.60" to 0.80" of liquid accumulating as snow is a good start. That would mean about 6-8" of snow possible. Areas farther to the west and northwest will be colder and offer less mixing and more snow. Here are a few for Southeast Colorado...you'll see the city name in blue at the top of the graphic:

The EURO Model remains steadfast in bringing a band of heavy snow from southwest to northeast across the Plains of Colroado...Trinidad to Yuma. We are still unsure if this is going to happen exactly as the EURO Model suggests, but it is something to definitely be prepared for...