California Update January 21st, 2017: February, March, April Outlook

The weak La Niña episode that prevailed since late summer has all but been erased. Not that there was ever a very strong La Niña signal, and it struggled to couple with the atmosphere, but it is done. The sea surface temperature anomaly map below clearly shows no pronounced La Niña episode occurring. However, there are some slightly cool anomalies just west of South America:

The other thing I would like you to notice is that the sea surface temperature anomaly pattern in the North Pacific is tiered. From north to south...warm, cool, warm, slightly cool. I believe this gradient or tiered pattern is responsible for keeping the weather pattern EXTREMELY active. No "blob" of warmer than average water to the west of California, which has largely been responsible for the drought. The amazing moisture that has been impacting California, has really helped the drought situation. Check out the drought monitor from just three months ago:

Now look at the current drought monitor...

Pretty impressive change, and here is the total liquid precipitation that has occurred in the past 3 months:

There are still some issues in Southern California, which hasn't been as fortunate as areas farther north. However, some relief has also been occurring for southern areas. Pretty amazing, huh? Now, will this pattern continue

Factors that we think are instrumental in keeping the weather pattern active:

  1. Lack of La Niña influence
  2. Sea surface temperature pattern in North Pacific
  3. Tip toward further sea surface temperature warming
  4. Pacific Decadal Oscillation remaining positive/warm

Here's our 90 day forecast...

Weather 5280 Precipitation Forecast February-April

Weather 5280 Temperature Forcast February-April

We feel pretty strongly that the pattern will remain active for California. This should keep it wetter than average and cooler than average. That's not to say that there won't be some drier times. However, given the way the Pacific Ocean is structured right now, we see no reason for this active weather pattern to stop.