A much anticipated and pretty well advertised pattern change is going to start impacting Southeast Colorado late this week. I want to preface this update by saying...THE DEVIL IS ALWAYS IN THE DETAILS WHEN IT COMES TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE SEE OR DON'T SEE. I KNOW WE NEED RAIN/SNOW DESPERATELY, BUT WE ARE NOT ABOUT HYPE. SO, IT BEHOOVES YOU TO STAY CURRENT WITH THE FORECAST AS THERE WILL LIKELY BE CHANGES.
Forecast as it stands right now...
EURO Model Upper Level Weather Pattern
Nothing to worry about as upper level ridging takes hold, and we'll be very quiet and mild through midweek.
Strong trough of low pressure dives into the Great Basin. Should become very windy ahead of that storm system, so plan on plenty of wind and high fire danger for Thursday. There is also an outside chance for a few strong to severe thunderstorms near the Colorado/Kansas line late in the day.
Strong closed low pressure develops over Southeast Colorado and Southwest Kansas. Again, would put areas to the north of Southeast Colorado in a good place to pick up some much needed moisture...especially along and north of I-70 and the Palmer Divide.
The GFS Model from this morning shows a good deal of liquid precipitation occurring, as well as some locally heavy snowfall.
GFS Model Total Liquid Precipitation Through Saturday AM
GFS Model Total Snowfall Potential Through Saturday AM
Don't necessarily focus on the exact snowfall totals being generated by the model. Focus on the idea and the trend... This storm is not packing much cold air, so higher elevation areas will see the best chance for some snow that might be meaningful. Besides the Palmer Divide, areas along the Raton Mesa, Wets, Sangres could pick up some decent snowfall too...IF the storm goes far enough south. If this storm goes a bit too far north, then Southeast Colorado will likely end up dry slotted with a bunch of wind. Nevertheless, this has the potential to be a high impact storm for many areas and Southeast Colorado is still on the table. Still LOTS to be decided, so stay tuned to the public side of Weather5280.com for the latest updates.