Current Status
Thanks to a very active weather pattern that got going around March 22nd, much of Texas has picked up some very nice moisture. Granted, some areas are doing better than others, but it is a lot better than it has been. The driest areas are pretty small and favor the far western and southern parts of the state. Otherwise, things are in pretty good shape... The map below shows total liquid moisture during the past 30 days.

The Oceans and El Niño

The map above shows current sea surface temperature anomalies. Red means warmer than average and blue means colder than average. You can clearly see that the ENSO regions off the west coast of South America are warmer than average. This warmth becomes less pronounced as you go westward, but is still average to slightly above average. The interesting thing here is the cooler than average water off the west coast of Australia, in the Southern Indian Ocean. History tells us that when you have cooler than average water in the Southern Indian Ocean and warmer than average water off the west coast of South America, that an El Niño is brewing. We've been chatting about that for awhile now, and we haven't changed our thinking. Are we in the midst of an El Niño now? Not quite, but most models agree it is coming... Another thing you can take away from the map is that the Pacific basin is still quite warm. Thus, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is still in a warm/positive state. That USUALLY means average to above average moisture is a pretty good bet.

The yellow line in the above graphic shows the mean of all the different model forecasts. It takes us into weak to moderate El Niño territory by mid to late summer. Given the current state of the oceans and the model forecasts, it is tough to argue against the development of an El Niño.

CFSv2 Model Temperature Forecast

May

June

CFSv2 Model Precipitation Forecast

May

June

The CFSv2 Model is forecasting generally average to slightly cooler than average temperatures across the state. Given the current state of the Pacific Ocean, we have a hard time signing off on that. Historically, an El Niño will bring above average temperatures to most of Texas. It is forecasting above average precipitation, for the whole state. In fact, it has Texas being downright wet for May and June...

NMME Model Temperature Forecast

May

June

NMME Model Precipitation Forecast

May

June

The NMME Model is forecasting warmer than average temperatures for Texas, with the warmest signal in East/Southeast Texas. This makes sense, given that the Gulf of Mexico is so warm right now. After May, areas of West Texas end up closer to average. It is showing average to slightly above average precipitation for the state.

Weather5280 Forecast May and June

May, June Temperature Forecast

May, June Precipitation Forecast

Summary
Per usual, the deeper we get into summer the drier Texas usually gets. This is especially true as we move into July. A strong ridge of hot high pressure sets up in the Plains, and the main storm track is farther north. Unless tropical storms and hurricanes impact the state, widespread rainfall is usually hard to come by. With the Gulf of Mexico at very warm levels, it is possible that some storm will form in the Gulf or close to the Gulf Coast this year. El Niño usually keeps the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic basin quieter than usual for hurricane activity, but one cannot discount the potential for storms that develop locally.