The spring has been very kind to most of us when it comes to moisture. This was something we thought would happen, when we did our last update in mid April.Here is the total precipitation for the last 60 days:

I can't underscore enough how important late winter and spring moisture is in keeping drought from developing and spreading. Currently, we aren't seeing any major drought issues in Texas. Some areas a bit drier than others, but nothing huge. Recent rains in some of these places will also act to reduce any drought signals further:

El Niño Update
Here is a look at the latest sea surface temperature anomalies:

There is some pretty warm water just northeast of Australia, but most of the Central and Eastern Pacific do not scream El Niño at this time. The one area that I am watching is the Indian Ocean. Areas just west/northwest of Australia are cooler than normal. This may cause high pressure to intensify near that cooler water and create a relative pressure difference across the Pacific...high pressure west with lower pressure east. This may cause the trade winds to weaken or slightly reverse, and allow that warmer water northeast of Australia to push westward. The graph below shows what various models think will happen with El Niño development:

The yellow line is the mean of what the models think will happen, which just reaches weak El Niño criteria through he late summer and winter. Right now, a strong El Niño is not in the forecast. Most models show a weak El Niño developing by late summer and lasting through the winter. While this event will likely not be a strong one, even a weak El Niño will have an impact. That impact will likely be the continuation of wetter than average conditions. This is especially true with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation remaining positive and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation remaining negative.

In 2004, Gregory McCabe did some brilliant work on the relationship between the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). The map below shows the relationship with each oscillation and phase and how it pertains to drought frequency:

We are currently seeing +PDO and -AMO. The blue in the upper right hand map represents reduced drought frequency. The red shaded areas represent higher than average chances for drought frequency. As of right now, we are dealing with a surplus of moisture for many areas of the Central, Western, and Southern Plains. As long as we keep the current oceanic setup, it is our thinking that Texas will not have to worry about widespread or significant drought. When a phase shift occurs with the PDO/AMO, we will likely have to deal with drought again.

June - August Model Forecasts

CFSv2 Temperature Forecast

CFSv2 Precipitation Forecast

The CFSv2 shows Texas with mainly average temperature and average to above average rainfall. Pretty strong wet signal across Eastern Texas and in the northern Texas Panhandle.

NMME Temperature Forecast

NMME Precipitation Forecast

The NMME model pretty much agrees with the CFSv2 Model. It does have temperatures slightly above average for the summer, but it also shows most of Texas staying wetter than average.

JAMSTEC Temperature Forecast

JAMSTEC Precipitation Forecast

The JAMSTEC is shows above average temperature and above average rainfall.

CAS Model (Constructed Analog on Soil Moisture)

The CAS Model shows a strong signal for cooler than average temperature...especially for northern Texas and the Texas Panhandle. This is likely due to how much moisture is in the ground right now. Wet ground heats up much less efficiently than does dry ground. Plus, when moisture is evaporated from the ground it can act as fuel for thunderstorms. This in turn puts more moisture back in the ground, and the positive feedback mechanism continues... This is also likely why the model is forecasting above average rainfall too. In fact, south Texas is showing very strong above average rainfall signal. This could also be due to some tropical storm influence? Not sure, but it is getting to be that time of year.

Summary
Usually, Texas dries out in the summer. The jet stream moves north, mid level atmospheric temperatures warm, and this makes it tough to generate regular rainfall. However, there is no denying that all models continue to favor Texas for above average rainfall. While there may be occasional drier times, we still continue to forecast average to above average rainfall with average to slightly below average temperature.

Weather5280 June and July forecast maps

Precipitation

Temperatures