The State of the Atmosphere: Monday, August 28, 2017

As Harvey continues to ravage southeast Texas, our weather pattern has quietly turned quiet after a relatively active and cool month of August. Month-to-date temperature analysis from the CPC shows a rare sight indeed: below normal temperatures for much of the country aside from the northwest, including eastern Colorado:

Harvey will continue to impact Texas and Lousiania for the next several days, as it drifts southeast before eventually ejecting northeast. This means MORE rain, on top of some absolutely staggering rainfall totals to date. The image below from the College of DuPage site, shows estimated rainfall totals in excess of 30" so far from Harvey around the Houston area:

COD Weather

While some dry air is mixing in this morning, it looks like area is by no means done with the heavy rainfall, with upwards of 10" expected for some locales through the middle of the week:

Weather5820 Models

This disaster is a long ways from over, and unfortunately, I don't think we understand the full impact yet of this event as it continues to unfold. Vox has put together a comprehensive list of ways to help in the recovery efforts if you are looking for ways to help.

The week ahead
As we continue to track activity in the Gulf and Atlantic this coming week, August will end very quietly across Colorado and much of the west.

Temperatures will be running a few degrees above average through most of the week, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s through the period. Average highs to end August in Denver drop to around 85 degrees, so while not scorching hot, certainly a warm finish to the month for the city. Here's the GEFS high/low forecast for the next 16 days – warm this week, with potentially more seasonal (even cooler than average) temperatures on the way as we head deeper into September.

As for precipitation, expect mostly dry weather to continue to dominate our pattern through the week. We'll see the chance for afternoon storms return by midweek, with perhaps our best chance for storms in Denver coming on Thursday. Better chances (overall) will be confined to the high country, as show in the GFS 10 day outlook below:

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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