The past few months have been the dry season for most of California. This comes after an epic winter and spring of moisture. So while there hasn't been much in the way of moisture lately, there really isn't supposed to be. The last 90 days shown below...

Here is the latest Drought Monitor for perspective...

Bottom-line, there are many areas north of I-80 that could certainly benefit from a wet fall.

ENSO Status

Right now, it looks like we will likely be in neither El Niño or La Niña for the foreseeable future. However, there is a slight tendency for the ENSO regions to perhaps be slightly cool as we push into fall and winter. Nothing strong, but something we are watching closely.

Model outlooks

NMME Precipitation Forecast September, October, November
The NMME Model shows mainly average precipitation during the three month period. It is also forecasting above average temperature.

NMME Temperature Forecast September, October, November

CFSv2 Model
The CFSv2 Model is forecasting average precipitation and above average temperature through the three month period, similar look to the NMME model above.

Precipitation Forecast September, October, November

Temperature Forecast September, October, November

JAMSTEC Model
The JAMSTEC Model is forecasting average to average to below average precipitation and above average temperature for the fall.

Precipitation Forecast September, October, November

Temperature Forecast September, October, November

All three models are pretty much on the same page, with the JAMSTEC being the driest of the three. While this is an overall look at the September/October/November time period, this of course doesn't rule out any cold and wet at any given time.

Here are our September - November precipitation and temperature outlooks: