Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, September 1st, 2017

As we approach the seasonal change and reflect on the summer, it has been a great summer of rain for Southeast Colorado. Check out the map below which shows the last 90 days of rainfall.

The Pikes Peak Region and the Palmer Divide are almost always a hot spot for summer rain. But to see the Southeast Plains get in on the act, was truly great. Many 90 day totals exceeding annual average totals and by quite a bit too. So as of right now, we are in great shape heading into the fall season. We will need a little bit of moisture to facilitate the planting of winter wheat, so it will come up. With that in mind, here's what lies ahead...

ENSO Status

Right now, it looks like we will likely be in neither El Niño or La Niña for the foreseeable future. However, there is a slight tendency for the ENSO regions to perhaps be slightly cool as we push into fall and winter. Nothing strong, but something we are watching closely. Keep this in mind for Southeast Colorado: there usually isn't a lot of difference in precipitation when we are neutral or have La Niña. The diagram below shows this for September, October, November.

Usually, and El Niño event graces Southeast Colorado with the best precipitation during the fall. So, a tip toward average to below average moisture may be the way to go based on history.

Model outlooks
The NMME Model shows average precipitation with above average temperature for Southeast Colorado, as shown below.

NMME Precipitation Forecast for September, October, November

NMME Temperature Forecast for September, October, November

CFSv2 Model
The CFSv2 Model looks similar for precipitation, and shows average temperature through the three month period – a slightly cooler look than the NMME.

Precipitation Forecast for September, October, November

Temperature Forecast for September, October, November

The JAMSTEC Model is forecasting below average precipitation and above average temperature for the fall. And, to be honest, I kind of like this depiction the best.

Precipitation Forecast September, October, November

Temperature Forecast September, October, November

While this is an overall look at the September/October/November time period, this of course doesn't rule out any cold and wet at any given time. For example, we are watching a colder than average airmass that will likely move through early to mid September. It could be significant, especially for areas just to our east. Nothing of great concern yet, but something we're watching, and likely a reminder in the pipeline that the seasons are getting ready to change.

Here are our September - November precipitation and temperature outlooks: