After the unbelievable rainfall associated with Hurricane Harvey, we could certainly use some dry time in Southeast Texas. Farther west, there are actually some areas that could use some rain, especially across southwest Texas. The good news is that aside from the catastrophic flooding in the southeast part of the state, most of Texas is in good shape. Rainfall for the past 90s days shown below.

ENSO Status

Right now, it looks like we will likely be in neither El Niño or La Niña for the foreseeable future. However, there is a slight tendency for the ENSO regions to perhaps be slightly cool as we push into fall and winter. Nothing strong, but something we are watching closely as even weak La Niña episodes tend to dry out Texas.

Model outlook

The NMME Model shows average to slightly above average precipitation with above average temperature for a large area of Texas. This is especially true for the southern half of the state.

NMME Precipitation Forecast September, October, November

NMME Temperature Forecast September, October, November

CFSv2 Model
The CFSv2 Model is forecasting average precipitation for MOST of the state, with average temperature through the three month period.

Precipitation Forecast September, October, November

Temperature Forecast September, October, November

JAMSTEC Model

Precipitation Forecast September, October, November

Temperature Forecast September, October, November

The JAMSTEC Model is forecasting below average precipitation and above average temperature. Is this a sign that the JAMSTEC is locking on to what usually happens when the ENSO regions are cool, even if La Niña isn't technically present? Perhaps.

However, given the amazing amount of rain that has fallen across Southeast Texas it is hard to believe that this area will dry out immediately. Moisture in the air combined with heating, will fuel additional airmass thunderstorms. While it may be drier after September, I would be skeptical of immediate dryness for the southeast half of the state. Farther west, that may be a different and drier story.

The one wildcard in the precipitation forecast is if another tropical storm or hurricane impacts the area. We are entering the peak of tropical cyclone season, and it is always possible that we have to deal with more tropical entities. Even if we do not see another hurricane, any additional rain along the coast and immediately inland would cause more big problems. We'll be watching...

While this is an overall look at the September/October/November time period, this of course doesn't rule out any cold and wet at any given time. For example, we are watching a colder than average airmass that will likely move through early to mid September. It could be significant, especially for areas just to our east. Nothing of great concern yet, but something we're watching, and likely a reminder in the pipeline that the seasons are getting ready to change.

Here are our September - November precipitation and temperature outlooks: