Most of California has been average to drier than average for the past two months. The far southern part of the state has been quite parched, with less than 10% of average moisture in many areas. The map below shows precipitation departure from average for the past 60 days.

What does that mean in terms of drought? Much of the state is dealing with dryness, but the worst of it is across the southern part of the state.

La Niña Update

As you can see above, the sea surface temperatures off the west coast of South Amercia are still below average, but a "warmer than average pocket" has been forming just west of South America. We continue to believe that this La Niña episode is going to come to an end pretty soon. Water temperatures below the surface are also continuing to warm. The animation below shows that trend pretty clearly, with the coolest water being confined to the top 50 meters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

All of that orange and red that is migrating from left to right, is warmer than average water that has been pooled up in the Western Pacific Ocean. Its movement eastward continues to erode La Niña, and will return the ENSO region of the Pacific to "neutral" conditions. What happens after that? Well, a warm pool of subsurface water like that can portend a future El Niño. The model image below shows a gradual trend in that direction...

As you can see from the "spaghetti lines", quite a few of the models take us toward weak El Niño territory by the Fall. Right now, models can struggle with predicting what ENSO will do. Predictability should become more clear in the next couple of months, after the seasonal change takes place.

NMME Model

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

NMME is showing average to drier than average and warmer than average for April, May, and June. I would probably change where the dry bullseye is located though... I think the southern part of the state will be the driest.

JAMSTEC Model

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

I think the JAMSTEC is more spot on than the NMME. It has the dry signal in the south, with better moisture prospects in the north. This would also fit well with its warmer than average bias south, and cooler than average north.

CFS Model

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The CFS has average precipitation for California, with above average temperatures. Now, after we get through April, May and June are usually pretty dry months for California. So that average forecast for precipitation, usually means dry. I think above average temperatures are a done deal.

California will likely have average to slightly above average precipitation for the northern 1/3 of the state, with below average precipitation for the southern 2/3 of the state. Average to above average temperatures will likely occur for most of the state. The far northern part of the state may be average to slightly cooler than average, but that would only be for April.

Forecast:

Temperatures

Precipitation