While the last couple of months haven't exactly been great for all of Colorado, the Northeast part of the state has received the most precipitation. The map below shows much of Northeast Colorado at or exceeding 100% of average moisture for the past 60 days. The far northeast corner is the lone exception...

What does that mean in terms of drought? Well, there is still a good amount of the area that is pretty dry. This is especially true for areas just east and southeast of Denver. So while things are better than some of our neighbors, it isn't great...

La Niña Update

As you can see above, the sea surface temperatures off the west coast of South Amercia are still below average, but a "warmer than average pocket" has been forming just west of South America. We continue to believe that this La Niña episode is going to come to an end pretty soon. Water temperatures below the surface are also continuing to warm. The animation below shows that trend pretty clearly, with the coolest water being confined to the top 50 meters of the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

All of that orange and red that is migrating from left to right, is warmer than average water that has been pooled up in the Western Pacific Ocean. Its movement eastward continues to erode La Niña, and will return the ENSO region of the Pacific to "neutral" conditions. What happens after that? Well, a warm pool of subsurface water like that can portend a future El Niño. The model image below shows a gradual trend in that direction...

As you can see from the "spaghetti lines", quite a few of the models take us toward weak El Niño territory by the Fall. Right now, models can struggle with predicting what ENSO will do. Predictability should become more clear in the next couple of months, after the seasonal change takes place.

NMME Model

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

NMME is showing drier than average and warmer than average for April, May, and June. I will say that areas north of I-70 will likely continue to pick up more moisture than this model suggests. That has been the trend...

JAMSTEC Model

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

JAMSTEC continues to show drier than average and warmer than average conditions through May. Again, no surprises here... I do like its look better than the NMME, as it bullseyes the area that has been the driest. But again, I believe that areas north of I-70 will pick up more moisture than the model shows. It also shows a stout warmer than average signal for Northeast Colorado. However, I think it may be a bit overdone and needs to be trimmed farther south and west.

CFS Model

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The lone model that is showing average to wetter than average conditions for April, May, and June, is the CFS Model. While that would be a nice change, I still think average to slightly drier than average is the way to go. Will it be warmer than average like the model suggests? Likely...

Northeast Colorado is likely going to be average to slightly drier than average and average to slightly warmer than average for April, May, and June.

Forecast:

Temperatures

Precipitation