Last night we saw why there's almost never a 0% chance of storms along the Front Range during the summer months. Outflow from from scattered storms southeast of Denver pushed through the metro area around 9pm, firing up quite a lightning display across the city, as well as some nice rain for some to boot.
The radar imagery from the time shows this dance quite nicely. Note first the showers and storms along the eastern plains southeast of Denver... then a line (outflow from the storms) pushing northeast into Denver, helping initiate the storms over the city yesterday evening:
It wasn't a zero percent chance for storms in the city on Monday, but certainly close to, so a bit of a (welcomed) surprise to be sure! As you can see in the gif above, not much activity to speak of aside from that storm that popped over the city.
A cold front will help knock temperatures back a few degrees for your Wednesday and Thursday. We'll also see a better chance of storms as well, with pops around 20% for the 4th, and up to 30% on Thursday.
By Friday we dry out once more, with highs returning to the 90s. The weekend continues to look mostly dry with highs back in the mid to upper 90s in Denver.
The EURO remains least excited about storms prospects on Thursday, while the NAM and GFS are wetter, with some pretty good storm coverage – especially along the Palmer Divide on Thursday.
We see hints of that in the EURO probability forecast for greater than 0.5" of rain through Friday. The highest probabilities are definitely on Denver's west and south side:
The GFS is likely overdone in coverage (resolution issues too):
With perhaps a good look from the 3km NAM (of course exact location of heaviest rain is likely to change). If we look at projected rainfall through tomorrow, we see those isolated storms around the metro area and far eastern plains, but not great coverage:
By Thursday we see things fill in a bit, with those who see storms having the potential to pick up a quick 1"+, while others stay dry:
Here's to hoping for a bit more rain before the hot weekend! Happy 4th, everyone.