Southeast Colorado Long Range Forecast Update, July 2018

The last few months have NOT been kind to most of Southeast Colorado. The map below shows how much above and below average we are, for the last three months. Green and blue are above average, with brown and red being below average...

Per what we thought months ago, areas south of I-70 were going to struggle. Most of Southeast Colorado remains in extreme drought...especially those areas west of a Lamar to Springfield line.

ENSO Status

Now that we are beyond the "spring predictability barrier", most models agree that a weak to moderate El Niño is going to occur. The chart above shows the event getting going in the fall and likely lasting through the winter. What type of El Niño will this be? Traditional? Modoki? It is a bit early to tell, but many of the models I have been looking at suggest a Modoki El Niño is possible. The JAMSTEC Model is pretty bullish with the evolution of a Modoki El Niño.

What does this mean in terms of temperature and precipitation? Look below...

Modoki El Niño Precipitation Average

Modoki El Niño Temperature Average

Those maps are simply the historical averages of what Modoki El Niño means for the world. Bottom-line, it usually is warm and dry for the Western US and cold and wet for the Eastern US. While the jury is still out on the evolution of this event, exactly what type it will be, and how strong it will be, an El Niño of some type still appears to be in the cards. More on this in future posts...

Here's a look at what the models are showing for the next few months, as well as our official forecast.

NMME Model August - October

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The NMME is showing average precipitation with above average temperatures.

JAMSTEC Model September - November

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The JAMSTEC Model shown above goes from September through November. It shows above average precipitation and below average temperatures. I know this is an additional month beyond the other models, but the trend is pretty much the same as we wrap up summer and move into fall.

CFS Model August - October

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The CFS model shows average to above average temperatures, with average precipitation through September.

The trend has been to bring more moisture to Southeast Colorado recently. However, nothing has really helped with the widespread drought. So, I would think average to drier than average conditions will prevail early in the period, with wetter conditions setting in later. Temperatures will likely end up above average early on, with a cooling trend toward fall.

Here is our August through October outlook: