Most of Texas has been drier than average, during the last 90 days. There have been some exceptions, but not many. The map below shows how much above and below average we are, for the last three months. Green and blue are above average, with brown and red being below average...

At the very least, areas in the Texas Panhandle have seen some recent rain and have relaxed the drought a bit.

ENSO Status

Now that we are beyond the "spring predictability barrier", most models agree that a weak to moderate El Niño is going to occur. The chart above shows the event getting going in the fall and likely lasting through the winter. What type of El Niño will this be? Traditional? Modoki? It is a bit early to tell, but many of the models I have been looking at suggest a Modoki El Niño is possible. The JAMSTEC Modoki El Niño Index is pretty bullish on the evolution of a Modoki El Niño.

What does this mean in terms of temperature and precipitation? Look below...

Modoki El Niño Precipitation Average

Modoki El Niño Temperature Average

Those maps are simply the historical averages of what Modoki El Niño means for the world. Bottom-line, it usually is warm and dry for the Western US and cold and wet for the Eastern US. While the jury is still out on the evolution of this event, exactly what type it will be, and how strong it will be, an El Niño of some type still appears to be in the cards. More on this in future posts...

Here's a look at what the models are showing for August through October...

NMME Model August - October

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The NMME Model shows basically average to slightly above average temperatures and average rainfall. Again, this is not taking into account any tropical activity.

CFS Model August - October

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The CFS model shows above average temperatures, with average to slightly drier than average conditions through September.

JAMSTEC Model September - November

Precipitation Forecast

Temperature Forecast

The JAMSTEC Model shown above goes from September through November. It shows above average precipitation and below average temperatures for Texas. I know this is an additional month beyond the other models, but the trend is pretty much the same as we wrap up summer and move into fall.

So, our official forecast calls for above average temperatures and average rainfall early in the period. But as we head into fall, the odds of wetter than average conditions and possibly cooler than average conditions starts to increase.

Here is our August through October outlook: