The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, September 9th, 2018

The state of the atmosphere will be pretty quiet this week across the region, with all the attention of the weather world focused on the tropics for the foreseeable future.

The tropics were slow to wake up this year, but they have certainly come to life in a big way in over the last week. In the Atlantic there are three named storms, with Florence likely posing a threat to the east coast later this week.

Model guidance continues to show anomalous ridging off the east coast helping to steer Florence toward the U.S. this week, with fewer and fewer solutions showing the hurricane recurving out to sea, as once was hoped would be a possibility:

The latest track from the National Hurricane Center continuing to focus the greatest area of concern across the Carolinas. Again, this is four days out –– so please expect that track to change some between now and then.

In the Pacific, hurricane Olivia is expected to impact Hawaii as a tropical storm by midweek:

The maps below highlight just how quiet our weather will be over the next week in comparison. The first shows the probabilities of more than a tenth of an inch of precipitation through early next Sunday. Outside of the southwest mountains, and isolated peaks to our west... probabilities are very low across Colorado, and really the region as a whole.

If we look at probabilities for >1" over the same period –– we see near 0 probabilities across Colorado, with the Texas coast, Carolinas, and greater mid-Atlantic being under the gun for that heavy rain this week:

With the dry weather comes anomalously warm temperatures as well. Seven day anomalies show warmer than average temperatures across the southwest, extending northeast over Colorado and the northern high plains, as those cooler anomalies sink southeast:

This will lead to temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s most days this week in Denver, with overnight lows in the upper 50s.

ICYMI: Weather5280 Insider: 2018 Compared to Colorado's Megadroughts of the Past

Again, pretty quiet around here... but not true across many U.S. coastal regions this week. If your travel plans take you to the east coast or Hawaii later this week, please track latest forecasts and advisories carefully. Florence is poised to be a major hurricane as it nears the U.S. coast later this week, with the need to keep an eye on the invest in the Caribbean, to see if that is able to develop as it enters the Gulf this week.

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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