Relief From the Heat

Yesterday felt to me a little like Mother Nature was breaking a fever. Temperatures climbed into the mid 80s early in the afternoon, before a wind shift and a round of showers and storms developed along the Front Range late in the afternoon. Yesterday was the first day in nine days where the temperature at DIA didn't break the 90 degree mark!

If we look at temperatures so far this month we see the average to cooler than average start to the month was quickly wiped out by the recent heat wave. Both highs and lows have been well above average for the last week+.

I've also mapped out the forecast temperature through the end of the month. I'd take these as a general idea, as I think what happens next week remains very much in question. The point, however, is the worst of the heat is behind us now. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s again this weekend, but should avoid 90+, with likely some much cooler temperatures on the way next week.

Ch-ch-ch-changes?
As we discussed earlier this week on Weather5280 Insider, we're tracking a shot of chilly air for next week. Still quite a bit of disagreement on this cold front due in early/mid week, mostly surrounding how much (if any) precipitation will be associated with the change.

What does look like a decent bet is a push of cooler air over the central and eastern United States. The CPC 6 - 10 day out look finally reflects this:

With the EURO showing an amplified pattern over the states next week, and a pretty good trough working to deliver some cold air south that's been locked up in Canada over the last two weeks:

For precipitation we see the greatest moisture over the next ten days (remainder of the month) lining up along the northern high plains, and midwest. Closer to home we see some greens (above average precipitation) trying to sneak into eastern Colorado, but not convincingly so. Models are really struggling ... so will start with the cool down which we have some confidence, and see about moisture availability as we head into the weekend.

As for snow... I don't see much of a change in the odds we discussed earlier this week. Might we see some first flakes of the season around here early/mid next week? Perhaps. But probability of that occurring remains quite low. Something (finally) to keep an eye on, but for now, enjoy the warm fall weekend ahead and say so-long to the crazy heat we've seen of late. If you haven't made it to the mountains for leaf peeping yet, this might be the weekend to do it. Next week's cold front is likely to knock some leaves down up there...

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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