As of right now, most of the Plains are doing just fine in the moisture department. Parts of Colorado and North Dakota are doing the worst with the drought situation, but there really isn't anything widespread east of the mountains..

The past 90 days have either been average or slightly above average for precipitation.

El Niño Update

We are still looking at El Niño conditions evolving across the Pacific Ocean. The maps below shows the evolution during the past few months on the ocean surface, as well as beneath the surface.

Given the amount of warmer than average water that is present, El Niño is likely not going to go away anytime soon. That doesn't necessarily mean it will strengthen, but it looks to remain in place for awhile. The latest model predictions from the IRI and CPC seem to agree with this thinking too...

The models average out to a weak to moderate event that seems to last through the spring and early summer. Most of the time, an El Niño event will weaken after spring and it may happen this time too. However, the models seem to agree on it lingering for a bit longer.

NMME Model Precipitation Forecast

January

February

March

The NMME Model keep precipitation in the "average" to "above average" category, through March. Right now, the early spring will likely end up being the wettest time.

Euro Seasonal Model

January

February

March

The Euro Seasonal Model is drier than the NMME. This is especially true for the eastern parts of the Plains. Farther west, the model brings better moisture to the picture.

What about temperatures? Well, the Euro Seasonal Model has been doing the best with the recent pattern, and we have no reason to challenge it. So, here is what it is saying...

Euro Seasonal Model Temperature Forecast

January

February

March

Average to above average temperatures are being forecast by the model, with the warmest temperatures likely occurring the farther north you live.

Related: High plains regional resource page