As of right now, most of Southeast Colorado is experiencing some sort of dryness. The worst of it is located mainly west of a La Junta to Kim line.
The past 90 days have been wetter than average for most of the area, with lesser moisture totals farther west. If nothing else, this has kept the drought from expanding eastward...
El Niño Update
We are still looking at El Niño conditions evolving across the Pacific Ocean. The maps below shows the evolution during the past few months on the ocean surface, as well as beneath the surface.
Given the amount of warmer than average water that is present, El Niño is likely not going to go away anytime soon. That doesn't necessarily mean it will strengthen, but it looks to remain in place for awhile. The latest model predictions from the IRI and CPC seem to agree with this thinking too...
The models average out to a weak to moderate event that seems to last through the spring and early summer. Most of the time, an El Niño event will weaken after spring and it may happen this time too. However, the models seem to agree on it lingering for a bit longer...
NMME Model Precipitation Forecast
The NMME Model keep precipitation in the "average" category, until March when above average precipitation is expected.
Euro Seasonal Model
The Euro Seasonal Model is a bit wetter than the NMME Model, for the next three months. However, one thing that both of these models agree on is a wet March. This is on track for what we've been saying for the past several months. We are advertising a wet late winter and spring for Southeast Colorado.
What about temperatures? Well, the Euro Seasonal Model has been doing the best with the recent pattern, and we have no reason to challenge it. So, here is what it is saying...
Euro Seasonal Model Temperature Forecast
Aside from the warmer than average January it is predicting, average temperatures show up for February and March. However, if the storm track gets really active during March, we would likely see below average temperatures for that month. That is something we are watching...
Related: Southeast Colorado resource page