As of right now, virtually all of Texas is drought free. This is certainly great news, especially as we head into winter.

The past 90 days have either been average or much above average in terms of precipitation for Texas. This is especially true for West/Central Texas.

El Niño Update

We are still looking at El Niño conditions evolving across the Pacific Ocean. The maps below shows the evolution during the past few months on the ocean surface, as well as beneath the surface.

Given the amount of warmer than average water that is present, El Niño is likely not going to go away anytime soon. That doesn't necessarily mean it will strengthen, but it looks to remain in place for awhile. The latest model predictions from the IRI and CPC seem to agree with this thinking too...

The models average out to a weak to moderate event that seems to last through the spring and early summer. Most of the time, an El Niño event will weaken after spring and it may happen this time too. However, the models seem to agree on it lingering for a bit longer.

NMME Model Precipitation Forecast

January

February

March

The NMME Model keep precipitation in the "average" to "above average" category, right through March.

Euro Seasonal Model

January

February

March

The Euro Seasonal Model is drier for Texas, especially across the eastern part of the state. Farther west, the model favors West Texas with average to above average precipitation.

What about temperatures? Well, the Euro Seasonal Model has been doing the best with the recent pattern, and we have no reason to challenge it. So, here is what it is saying...

Euro Seasonal Model Temperature Forecast

January

February

March

Mostly average temperatures are in the forecast from the Euro Seasonal Model, through March.

Related: Texas regional resource page