State of the Atmosphere: Sunday May 19th, 2019

Matt Makens is a meteorologist with the Pinpoint Weather Team, delivering forecasts on Colorado's Own Channel 2 and Fox31

Active weather hit the region this weekend, and that persistent storm pattern is to continue this week.

The jet stream delivered some powerful energy to the area which started Thursday and Friday, Friday in particular.

Friday delivered dozens of tornado reports across Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas.

Through Saturday, hundreds of wind, hail, and tornado reports are tallied in three days - of which, nearly 70 reports of tornadoes.

That low pressure area delivered scatted thunderstorms to Colorado with some severe thunderstorm warnings for NoCo Friday, and isolated heavy rain events Saturday.

Today, the activity continues.

I am tracking two low pressure areas that will impact the region this week. Here is an animation showing both, the first hits early in the week and the second late in the week.

Regarding additional severe weather, Monday will be an active day with that first low pressure area. Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle have the highest potential for damaging thunderstorms.

In Colorado, we may see some snow in the metro areas from this same storm system.

From Sunday through the first half of the week, I expect snowfall in the mountains and periods of rainfall (some of it heavy) on the plains and metro areas.

During these hit and miss periods of rainfall, those that move through overnight may produce some snow into parts of the metro areas. This snapshot is of Tuesday morning, which would be the most likely time to see flakes mixing in with rain around Denver, Fort Collins, and Colorado Springs.

The total snowfall for the first low pressure area is shown here, with notable accumulations in the mountains. Snow moves into the Pike's Peak Region as well as west and south Denver, Boulder, and west Fort Collins. Other models are more bullish with snow for parts of the Front Range, Palmer Divide, and Northeast Plains. Given that this storm will not be that cold, the overall impact, if heavier snow were to occur, likely wouldn't be major. Definitely a higher impact for parts of Wyoming and northward.

The Euro Model Ensemble Mean is shown below and does have more snow than the GFS.

How likely is this? Well, here is Denver (Stapleton's) chance of seeing snow this week - note, not a chance of accumulation but rather a chance to see flakes.
Compare that to Colorado Springs, quite a difference!

It's clear to see the chance is there, but not likely for metro areas to accumulate snow - at least, as the data indicates now. Colorado Springs will be most likely to see slushiness out of the large metro areas in the state.

Combining all chances of rain (and snow) the total precipitation for the first half of the week is best over NoCo:

It's clear to see that if I am mentioning snow chances, I am tracking colder temperatures too. Those of you that have planted gardens, time to cover up what you want to save or bring in those potted flowers from Mother's Day. You'll see several chances for temperatures to cool to the 30s and near/below freezing this week, especially Wednesday morning!

Denver:

Colorado Springs:

I didn't mention the second low pressure area much in this post. Weather5280 will update you on that as we get closer. Let's get through the first system first.

Matt Makens

Matt Makens has won 5 Emmys for his weather coverage. He has the seal of approval from the NWA and is a certified Broadcast Meteorologist as designated by the AMS. He works for Colorado's Own Ch 2.

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