Heavy Rainfall to be Wednesday's Storm Threat

A little different variety of thunderstorms will push through the area Wednesday: heavy rainers.

Tuesday evening still may see a storm, the strongest of which will be over the plains, but the storm impact Tuesday is lower than what is possible Wednesday.

Wednesday morning starts with sunshine and quickly warming temperatures into the upper 70s. As clouds increase into the afternoon, thunderstorms will grow quickly.

Into the later afternoon and early evening, the storms will be able to produce an inch or so of rainfall per 30 minutes. That's a rate fast enough to create some flooded roadways in the metro area locations.

Here is a look at the high-resolution NAM with total precipitation through Wednesday evening:

Here's the same data but on a map that's zoomed in a touch:

In both views, you can see the preference for the storm placement is to be on the Front Range Mountains and near/on the Palmer Divide. The bullseye of ~2-inch rainfall is across western and northern Colorado Springs, from Manitou to Monument.

This placement is one possibility, but the same total accumulation remains possible in sections of Denver too even though this one model isn't depicting that. We do believe Denver and Colorado Springs are favored areas for these heavy rainers due to our terrain. Fort Collins and Greeley may see big storms but not nearly as likely as those near and south of I-70. The latest WPC excessive rainfall outlook is in agreement here, with the greatest odds of that heavy rain on Wednesday from Denver south, across the Palmer Divide and into the Colorado Springs area:

In addition to heavy rainfall, accumulating hail is also possible/likely with these storms. If you check in with the SPC, they have the region in a general thunderstorm category only.

Remember this product is for the likelihood of storms threats (hail over 1", wind over 58 mph, and tornado) and does not include the probability of flooding rainfall or accumulating small hail sizes.

Should you be one of those to catch the heavy rain or get some hail Wednesday, please send us your report if you have a moment: Twitter or Facebook.


This is a collaborative post from multiple authors at Weather5280.

Denver, Colorado
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