The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, June 9, 2019

A remarkable cool down today with temperatures Sunday morning running some 20 to 30 degrees cooler than the same time Saturday. Through mid morning our station had only managed 52°F, with a forecast high of just 60°F this afternoon –– two degrees cooler than the record cold high for the date, and well below the average of 81°F. A chilly June morning across all of Colorado this morning, with temperatures in the 30s, 40s, an 50s as of 10am across the state:

Tonight will be another chilly one, with lows in the low 40s for Denver, and dipping into the 30s for some of the city's surrounding suburbs. Highs tomorrow, however, will be warmer –– topping out in the mid 70s for Denver.

While plenty of cool air in place today, not a lot of rain to speak of. We saw some good storm activity across Northeast Colorado yesterday, but today's forecast is very quiet. Storms unfortunately missed much of Denver proper yesterday afternoon, but some good activity on the south side and across the Palmer divide, as well as a few good cells moving through the northern urban corridor. 24 hour rain totals are below:

A look at the HRRR reflectivity forecast through midnight shows a very quiet day across Colorado and the plains states with this chilly airmass in place. A welcome break to the active severe weather pattern we've seen of late:

The week ahead
The week ahead will feature temperatures in the 70s and 80s across Northeast Colorado, with at least an isolated chance of storms most afternoons. Plenty of colder than average air around to the east of us will make its presence felt from time to time on a northwesterly flow aloft. The animation below shows the temperature anomaly forecast from the GFS over the next 10 days. Plenty of heat across the West, a bit of a back-and-forth for Colorado, with cooler than average weather east:

Similarly, the European model shows below average temperatures for Colorado over the next 10 days (not every day), with the coldest anomalies to our east:

This forecast from the Euro for Denver looks pretty reasonable. Coolest of the next seven today, but no heat waves in the forecast this week either. 70s for the most part, warming into the 80s by late week and next weekend:

While we do expect to see a chance of storms most afternoons over the coming week, this isn't a particularly wet pattern for us either. The Euro precipitation anomaly forecast map shows greatest potential for above average precipitation over the next 10 days lining up across Central Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas, with perhaps some pockets of above average precip along the Front Range of Colorado, but otherwise average to drier than average for many:

The GFS is a bit more bullish with moisture. It keeps us pretty dry through Friday, but then brings some wetter weather through next weekend. Here's its rainfall totals through midday Saturday (most of that precip coming Friday into Saturday across Eastern Colorado):

With 10 day totals showing some potential for more wet weather late in the weekend and into next week across Eastern Colorado:

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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