Weekend Outlook: A Good Chance of Showers and Storms

As we discussed in this week's SOTA, the chance of storms goes up today and will carry through the weekend. Look for about a 30% chance of storms today, with 40 to 70% chances for your Saturday and Sunday across Northeast Colorado.

Rainfall totals will range from a few tenths of an inch to perhaps upwards of 1" across central and eastern Colorado over the weekend. A broad-brushed look from the European Ensemble shows this, with perhaps the greatest heavy rain potential over the Front Range foothills and Palmer Divide, but decent coverage across the plains as well:

The high-res Euro is less bullish for the weekend across the Plains, with the heavier precipitation trapped in the hills to the west. It instead brings heavier storms through early next week. Most other models are in agreement that we should see decent rain chances this weekend, and with total water values running quite high, any storms that do develop will have the potential of producing heavy rain.

The high-res NAM (which only goes through Sunday morning) shows pockets of heavy rain across the Plains this afternoon and Saturday. It is especially excited about the storm potential over Southeast Colorado on Saturday:

The GFS is also onboard, with pockets of heavy rain through the weekend across the eastern two thirds of the state:

Severe weather outlook
As things look this morning, today features the highest severe weather threat to Northeast Colorado of the next three. Denver is under a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon, with a Slight Risk for the I-70 corridor east of town, extending into Southeast Colorado. Damaging wind, hail, and a tornado are all possible from today's storms, so please stay weather aware.

By Saturday the greatest potential for severe weather across Eastern Colorado shifts southeast. This could grow to include more of Northeast Colorado in future updates, so follow along on social media for updates on Saturday just in case.

By Sunday the severe weather threat moves southeast of our area:

Needless to say, not everyone sees that heavy rain this weekend. The potential, however, is there. A lot of detail to be worked out each day on how things ultimately setup, with subtle changes to outflow boundaries and fronts greatly impacting who sees the best storm potential each day. Best to just plan on those rain chances and see how things shake out.

Temperatures
Along with the increased rain chances, we see a cool off as well through perhaps the middle of next week. After highs in the mid 80s today, MOS guidance has highs in the low to mid 70s for Denver through Tuesday. The Euro temperature forecast for Stapleton is a touch warmer on Sunday, but in general agrees –– a little run of 70s over the next several days:

Brendan Heberton

Brendan is founder of Weather5280. He is co-founder of FreshyMap, and develops software for geospatial data analysis and visualization.

Denver, Colorado
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