The State of the Atmosphere: Sunday, August 11th, 2019

The biggest takeaway today is the threat of damaging weather Sunday afternoon and evening.

"Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains by noon and spread across the northeast plains during the afternoon and evening hours. Storms may become severe on the plains, especially least a line from Limon to New Raymer. Impacts will be large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 60 mph, and even a brief tornado. Very heavy rain may also be a factor with rainfall rates up to 2 inches in less than one hour. This may lead to localized flooding. Storms will end from west to east this evening." - NWS Boulder:

With that in mind, this will likely be the most weather-active day of the past week and week ahead.

With the seasonal monsoon lacking, the past seven days have been much drier than average across most of the state.

Looking at the next seven days, we don't see a wet pattern coming; we see continued drought for most of the state.

This places emphasis on receiving rainfall today.

Here's a timeline for Sunday's thunderstorms:

Again, damaging thunderstorms look more likely than we've seen in quite some time.

So, where do we go after today? A mostly dry forecast, as shown, with hit and miss thunderstorm chances daily expected for the next week.

Temperatures, they'll continue to run warmer their averages - which is the upper 80s for the metro areas - with highs mostly in the 90s.

The daily storm chances may benefit some locations with heavy rain. However, rainfall will not be widespread enough to be of impact on the state as a whole, and the drier than average forecast continues.

Plus, considering temperatures will be warmer than average we will not be surprised if this week's drought monitor increases the coverage area of abnormally dry conditions. This past week Baca County was added to D0 areas.

We've indicated a lack of monsoonal moisture this year, and that has panned out in even drier fashion than we had expected.

The past five days were our hope for significant rainfall, which failed to materialize for much of Denver and the parts of the region.

This week, look for a greater discussion regarding this season's monsoon and lack thereof as we take a look at what happened.